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最后发表： h_gen
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In English:
My fellow citizens: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and co-operation he has shown throughout this transition.

Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.

These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.

We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labour, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.

For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and travelled across oceans in search of a new life.

For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and ploughed the hard earth.

For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sahn.

Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.

This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.

Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.

What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public’s dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.

Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favours only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.

As for our common defence, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the spectre of a warming planet. We will not apologise for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world’s resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the fire-fighter’s courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent’s willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have travelled. In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people: “Let it be told to the future world…that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive…that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it].”

America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

And in Chinese (complete and uncensored):
各位同胞：
　　
今天我站在这里，为眼前的重责大任感到谦卑，对各位的信任心怀感激，对先贤的牺牲铭记在心。我要谢谢布什总统为这个国家的服务，也感谢他在政权转移期间的宽厚和配合。
　　
四十四位美国人发表过总统就职誓言，这些誓词或是在繁荣富强及和平宁静之际发表，或是在乌云密布，时局动荡之时。在艰困的时候，美国能箕裘相继，不仅因为居高位者有能力或愿景，也因为人民持续对先人的抱负有信心，也忠於创建我国的法统。
　　
因此，美国才能承继下来。因此，这一代美国人也必须承继下去。

现在大家都知道我们正置身危机核心，我国正在与四处蔓延的暴力和憎恨作战。我们的经济元气大伤——这既是某些人贪婪且不负责任的後果，也是大众未能做出艰难的选择，对国家进入新时代做准备不足所致。许多人失去房子，丢了工作，生意萧条。我们的医疗太昂贵，学校教育让人失望。每天都有更多证据显示，我们利用能源的方式壮大我们的对敌，威胁我们的星球。

这些都是得自资料和统计数据的危机指标。比较无法测量但同样深沉的，是举国信心尽失——持续担心美国将无可避免地衰退，也害怕下一代一定会眼界变低。

今天我要告诉各位，我们面临的挑战是真的，挑战非常严重，且不在少数。它们不是可以轻易，或在短时间内解决。但是，美国要了解，这些挑战会被解决。

在这一天，我们聚在一起，因为我们选择希望而非恐惧，有意义的团结而非纷争和不合。

在这一天，我们来此宣示，那些无用的抱怨和虚伪的承诺已终结，那些扭曲我们政治已久的相互指控和陈旧教条已终结。

我们仍是个年轻的国家，但借用圣经的话，摆脱幼稚事物的时刻到来了，重申我们坚忍精神的时刻到来了，选择我们更好的历史，实践那种代代传承的珍贵权利，那种高贵的理念：就是上帝的应许，我们每个人都是平等的，每个人都是自由的，每个人都应该有机会追求全然的幸福。

再次肯定我们国家的伟大，我们了解伟大绝非赐予而来，必须努力达成。我们的旅程从来就不是抄捷径或很容易就满足。这条路一直都不是给不勇敢的人走的，那些偏好逸乐胜过工作，或者只想追求名利就满足的人。恰恰相反，走这条路的始终是勇於冒险的人，做事的人，成事的人，其中有些人很出名，但更常见的是在各自岗位上的男男女女无名英雄，在这条漫长崎岖的道路上支撑我们，迈向繁荣与自由。

为了我们，他们携带很少的家当，远渡重洋，追寻新生活。
为了我们，他们胼手胝足，在西部安顿下来；忍受风吹雨打，筚路蓝缕。
为了我们，他们奋斗不懈，在康科特和盖茨堡，诺曼地和溪山等地葬身。
前人不断的奋斗与牺牲，直到双手皮开肉绽，我们才能享有比较好的生活。他们将美国视为大於所有个人企图心总和的整体，超越出身、财富或小圈圈的差异。

这是我们今天继续前进的旅程。我们仍旧是全球最繁荣强盛的国家。这场危机爆发时，我们的劳工生产力并未减弱。我们的心智一样创新，我们的产品和劳务和上周或上个月或去年相比，一样是必需品。我们的能力并未减损。但是我们墨守成规、维护狭小利益、推迟引人不悦的决定，这段时期肯定已经过去。从今天起，我们必须重新出发、再次展开再造美国的工程。

我们无论朝何处望去，都有工作必须完成。经济情势需要大胆、迅速的行动，我们将有所行动，不光是创造新工作，更要奠定成长的新基础。我们将造桥铺路，为企业兴建电力网格与数位线路，将我们联系在一起。我们将让科学回归合适的用途，运用科技的奇蹟来提高医疗品质并降低费用。我们将利用太阳能、风力和土壤作为汽车的燃料和工厂的能源。我们将让中小学及大专院校转型，因应新时代的需要。这些我们可以作到。我们也将会作到。

现在，有人质疑我们的雄心，暗示说我们的体系无法承受太多的大计画。这些人的记性不好。因为他们忘记了这个国家已经完成的成就，当创造力朝同一个目标发展，不受约束的男男女女可以完成何等成就，必要的是勇气。

怀疑者无法理解的是他们的主张已经站不住脚，长期以来折磨我们的陈腐政治争议已经行不通。我们今天的问题不是政府太大或太小，而是有无功效，是否能帮助家庭找到薪水不错的工作，支付得起照顾费用，有尊严的退休。哪个方向能够提供肯定的答案，我们就往那里走。答案是否定的地方，计画就会停止。所有我们这些管理大众金钱的人都将负起责任，花钱要精明，改掉恶习，正大光明作事情，只有这样我们才能重建政府与人民间最重要的信任。

我们眼前的问题也不是说市场的力量是善或恶。市场创造财富和增加自由的力量无与伦比，但是这场危机提醒我们没有监督时，市场发展将失控，当市场只偏爱有钱人时，国家无法永续繁荣。我们经济成功的依据，不只是国内生产毛额的规模，还有繁荣可及的范围，以及我们将机会拓展给每个愿意打拚的人，不是因为施舍，而是因为这就是达到我们共同利益最稳健的途径。

至於我们的共同防卫，让我们必须在自由和理想之间作一抉择，是错误的，我们拒绝接受。我们建国诸父在我们难以想像的危难之中。拟具了确保法治和人权的宪章，被一代代以鲜血扩大充实的宪章。这些理想依然照亮这个世界，我们不会为了便宜行事而扬弃它。同样地，今日在观看此情此景的其他民族和政府，从最宏伟的都城到家父出生的小村庄，我要说：任何一个国家、男、女、和孩童，只要你在追求一个和平且有尊严的未来，美国就是你的朋友，我们准备再次带领大家。

回想先前的世代力抗法西斯主义和共产主义，靠的除了飞弹和战车之外，还有强固的联盟和持久的信念。他们知道单单力量本身不足以让我们自保，也不能让我们为所欲为。相反地，他们知道我们的力量因为谨慎使用而增强，我们的安全源自我们理想的正当性，我们所树立楷模的力量，以及谦逊和克制所具有的调和特质。

我们是这些遗产的保存者。在这些原则的再次指引下，我们可以面对那些新的威胁，这些威胁有赖国与国间更大的合作与谅解方能因应。我们将开始以负责任的方式把伊拉克还给它的人民，并在阿富汗建立赢来不易的和平。我们会努力不懈地与老朋友和昔日的对手合作，以减轻核子威胁，和地球的暖化。我们不会为我们的生活方式而道歉，也会毫不动摇地保护它，对那些想要藉由带来恐怖与杀害无辜以遂其目的者，我们现在告诉你，我们的精神强过你们，无法摧折，你们不可能比我们长久，我们必定打败你们。

因为我们知道，我们拼凑组合而成的遗产是我们的强处，而非弱点。我们是由基督徒和穆斯林，犹太教徒和印度教徒，以及非信徒组成的国家。我们由取自世界四面八方的各种语文和文化所形塑。而且由於我们曾尝过内战和种族隔离的苦果，并且在走出那黑暗时期之後变得更坚强和团结，这让我们不得不相信旧日的仇恨终究会过去，部族之间的界线很快就会泯灭。随着世界越来越小，我们共通的人性也会彰显，而美国必须扮演引进新和平时代的角色。

对穆斯林世界，我们寻求一种新的前进方式，以共同的利益和尊重为基础。那些想播植冲突并把自己社会的问题怪罪於西方的领袖，须知你的国民藉以判断你的，是你能建立什麽，而非你能毁坏什麽。那些靠着贪腐欺骗和箝制异己保住权势的人，须知你门站在历史错误的一边，而只要你愿意松手，我们就会帮忙。

那些穷国的人民，我们保证会和你们合作，让们的农场丰收，让清流涌入，滋补饿坏的身体，喂养饥饿的心灵。而对那些和我们一样比较富裕的国家，我要说，我们不能再对国界以外的苦痛视而不见，也不能再消耗世上的资源而不计後果。因为世界已经变了，我们也要跟着改变。

在我们思索眼前道路的此际，我们以谦虚感激的心想到，有些勇敢的美国同胞正在遥远的沙漠和山岭上巡逻。今天他们有话要对我们说，就和躺在阿灵顿（公墓）的英雄们世世代代轻声诉说的一样。我们尊荣他们，不只因为他们扞卫我们的自由，更因为他们代表着服务的精神；愿意在比自己更大的事物上找寻意义。而在此刻，能够界定一个世代的此刻，必须常驻你我心中的，正是这种精神。

即使政府能做和必须做，这个国家最终仍得靠美国人民的信念与决心。在堤防决堤时，是人们的善心，让他们招待陌生人。是工作人员的无私，让他们宁可减工时，也不愿看到朋友失业，陪伴我们度过最黑暗时期。是消防员的勇气，让他们冲进满是浓烟的楼梯间。是父母心甘情愿培育孩子，最终决定我们的命运。

我们的挑战也许是新的，我们迎接挑战的工具也许是新的，但我们赖以成功的价值观─辛勤工作和诚实、勇气和公平竞争、容忍和好奇心、忠实和爱国心─这些都是固有的。这些价值是真实的，是我们历史上进步的沉默力量。我们有必要找回这些真实价值。我们现在需要一个勇於负责的新时代，每一个美国人都体认到我们对自己、对国家、对世界负有责任，我们不是不情愿地接受这些责任，而是欣然接受，坚信没有什麽比全力以赴完成艰难的工作，更能得到精神上的满足，更能找到自我。

这是公民的代价和承诺。
这是我们信心的来源，体认上帝召唤我们创造不确定的命运。
这是我们的自由和信条的真谛，为什麽不同种族和信仰的男女老幼能在这个大草坪上共同庆祝，为什麽一个人的父亲在不到六十年前也许还不能进当地的餐厅用餐，现在却能站在你们面前做最神圣的宣誓。

让我们记住这一天，记住我们是谁、我们走了多远。在美国诞生这一年，在最寒冷的几个月，在结冰的河岸，一群爱国人士抱着垂死的同志。首都弃守，敌人进逼，雪沾了血。在那时，我们革命的成果受到质疑，我们的国父下令向人民宣读这段话：

“让这段话流传后世，在深冬，只剩下希望和美德，这个城市和这个国家，面临共同危险，站起来迎向它。”

美国，面对我们共同的危险，在这个艰困的冬天，让我们记得这些永恒的话语。怀着希望和美德，让我们再度冲破结冰的逆流，度过接下来可能来临的暴风雪。让我们孩子的孩子继续流传下去，说我们受到考验时，我们拒绝让旅程结束，我们不回头，也不踌躇；眼睛注视着远方，上帝的恩典降临我们，我们带着自由这个伟大的礼物，安全送达未来的世世代代。

愿上帝保佑你们，上帝保佑美利坚！

最后发表： ubuntuhk
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如果你银弹足够多，当然可以啦

最后发表： joy55
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修改后，在傍边签字，注意，是能在支票上签字的人签字，然后就行了。你们公司需要老板签字，你就把改过的支票让老板签个字，保证能用。

[ 本帖最后由 joy55 于 29-1-2009 18:47 编辑 ]

最后发表： xblues
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为自由而奋斗，为平等权利而奋斗。

最后发表： 冬菇茶
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q 1: 会涨，但可能涨得不多，还要给中介吃掉一部分。
q 2: 先和中介谈谈再决定。

最后发表： aud
回复内容：
it is a good course.

the harder part is law, common law, company law, and income tax. But you don't need them in your entrance level accounting work.

a good point is Goverment pays for everything

最后发表： goldensun
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Thanks !

最后发表： nizi
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Movie details

A young couple living in Connecticut suburb during the mid-1950s struggle to come to terms with their personal problems while trying to raise their two children. Based on a novel by Richard Yates

Our review
If seeing Golden Globe winner Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio teaming up on the big screen for the first time since "Titanic" won't entice you to see this film, the profound and compelling story about the complexities of human relationships will.

Based on the novel by Richard Yates, "Revolutionary Road" centers on April (Winslet) and Frank Wheeler (DiCaprio), a young married couple struggling to come to terms with the fact they have become the one thing they never wanted to be: a good man with a job he hates and an unhappy suburban housewife.

Like any couple, fiery April and charismatic Frank begin their relationship with the exhilarating fervor of youthful ideals and the certainty they will avoid the trappings of marriage or conformity.

However when fate leads them exactly to the point they feared, April proposes that she and Frank leave the security of suburban Connecticut and move their family away to Paris to start a new life, live out their dreams and save their dying marriage.

While Frank initially agrees to the move, it doesn't take long before friends and co-workers plant the seeds of doubt in his mind. Can he throw away what many would call the American dream - secure job, a wife, two kids and a home - for a radical move to Paris?

Directed by Sam Mendes, "Revolutionary Road" shares the pace of his previously acclaimed films "American Beauty" and "Road to Perdition". While the film can be slow at times, the intensity of its two lead characters and the undeniable on screen chemistry between Kate and Leo is enough to keep you engrossed.

Although set in the 1950s, it is easy to identify with the characters and the tender and turbulent moments of their relationship. For anyone who has ever questioned just how much they are willing to conform and compromise themselves for a relationship, "Revolutionary Road" is an eye-opener.

最后发表： 我爱猫眯
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请问:为什么显示"您不是可以领取该红包的用户，请返回领取其他红包"呢

[ 本帖最后由 我爱猫眯 于 28-1-2009 23:18 编辑 ]

最后发表： alphabeta
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油价大幅反弹啦！都快4.6了

最后发表： kennyxue
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非要买国债干嘛？ 买点物资， 买点硬通货， 买点飞机什么的。

最后发表： sensen
回复内容：
pass VTAC .get offer,then,
go to university,finish 2 years course.
get degree .才可以注册 I did it last year.but i also need take 2 years to finish some subject. good luck ! try your best .you will get good result.

最后发表： chubbycat
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美国金元救助计划的苦涩代价
华尔街日报    2009-01-27 08:39:43

政府债券和公司债券之间的息差开始收窄，但却并非是决策者所希望的那样。

这种变化并不是来自于公司债券收益率下降，让公司的借款成本降低了，而是主要来自于政府债券收益率的上升。

英国首相布朗（右）与反对党保守党领袖卡梅伦自今年年初以来，美国、德国和英国10年期国债的收益率持续上涨，其中大部分涨幅来自于上周。仅上周五，10年期德国国债的收益率就上涨0.15个百分点至3.25%，占今年以来0.30个百分点上涨幅度的一半。此前德国还将利率下调了0.5个百分点。

这在某种程度上反映出政府债券正被用来为金融部门救助计划提供资金。本来应由私营部门承担的风险正在转嫁给公共部门，导致信用风险和主权风险之间的界限越来越模糊。

这种变化在信用违约掉期市场非常明显，针对违约行为的保险成本在政府债券收益率中已占到可观的比例。

在英国，10年期信用违约掉期成本约为1.35个百分点，占10年期英国国债3.67%收益率水平的36%。而在金融危机前，主权信用违约掉期在国债收益率中的比例还是个位数。

近期收益率的上升也反映了对供应面的担忧。巴克莱(Barclays Capital)估计，美国、欧元区、英国、日本和中国2009年发行的政府债券规模将增加到3.2万亿美元，使得负债占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例上升到二战后的最高水平。

市场可能对如此大的发行规模感到畏惧，尤其是在计划发行1.8万亿美元新债券的美国。这将考验包括央行等官方机构在内的外国买家的承接能力。截至2008年11月，外国官方机构共持有1.94万亿美元美国国债，比2007年同期增加了3,230亿美元。

此外还有来自新创立的政府担保银行债券的竞争。

花旗集团(Citigroup)上周五融资120亿美元，这是迄今以来最大规模的交易。人们担心这部分债券的流动性，但收益率却出现了明显回升，花旗所发债券的固定利率部分的收益率比美国国债高出了1.05个百分点。

国债收益率的上升也有一丝好处。收益率曲线变陡会让银行赚取息差，从而鼓励他们放贷。但贝南克(Ben Bernanke)任下的美联储(Federal Reserve)将更为关注其负面影响。

由于美国房地产仍处于混乱之中，央行将更加担心国债收益率上升给抵押贷款市场带来的影响。上周，住房抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)的数据显示，30年期抵押贷款利率上升了0.35个百分点。

美联储已经在收购机构债券和抵押贷款支持债券，希望降低抵押贷款息差。但随着美联储试图降低消费者借贷成本，预计将会更多地考虑购买长期国债。

最后发表： chubbycat
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中国经济将迎来触底后的第一轮反弹

　　“中国经济将迎来触底后的第一轮反弹。”马骏也注意到了2008年12月份的经济变化。马骏判断近两年中国GDP增长率走势将呈“W”型，即经历两次探底过程。他认为，中国GDP的第一次触底时间是2008年四季度，2009年上半年中国经济将迎来一次强劲反弹，但在2010年上半年很可能再次触底。

　　为何呈“W”型底，所谓的“2009年上半年中国经济将迎来一次强劲反弹”的判断又基于什么？对此，马骏对《红周刊》记者解释道：其中的关键因素在于扩张性政策的快速实施。在马骏看来，除了当前部分行业的经营情况出现好转外，更重要的指标是，自2008年12月至2009年1月份的金融机构新增贷款 (马骏特别强调新增贷款这个指标)同比增长达150%，增幅创下了1997年以来的新高！另外，财政拨款力度也在加速，预计2009年2月底，前4万亿刺激方案中将有1万多亿元到位基本已成定局。也就是说，原定两年实施的刺激内需方案中约有30%的资金在3个月内就会到位。

　　“但是，目前看到的政府支持项目到位资金的巨幅环比增长是难以持续的。企业部门的投资减速刚刚开始，估计还将持续一年半的时间。”马骏认为，政府对经济的刺激效用不具备可持续性，而民间投资的减速与全球经济下滑的大环境对中国出口的压制，将注定中国经济在2009年反弹后会再次探底。

　　据马骏掌握的信息，由于面临产能过剩和需求与利润下降的前景，国内大的地产商普遍预计2009年的投资将比2008年下降20%~30%，制造业和矿业企业的投资增速估计会从2008年的30%~40%下降到2009年的零增长。而地产、制造业和矿业的投资则占全部固定资产投资的60%以上。

　　政府投入资金，更要投入信心

　　“星星之火也要等寒冬过去才能燎原。”左小蕾认为，在全球经济下滑，中国出口和民间投资持续萎靡的情况下，仅靠政府投资刺激可谓是“杯水车薪”。

　　她告诉《红周刊》记者，“2008年政府主导的投资不到2万亿元，仅相当于全国17万亿元总投资规模的1/8。问题的关键是政府投资的引导作用，政府如何投资，把钱投到哪里，这些钱能否提振民间资本的信心，发挥出金钱的”乘数效应“至关重要。”

　　“目前还看不出来'乘数效应'，2009年中国经济的反弹能否转为反转仍需进一步观察。”左小蕾判断中国经济下滑的原动力依然存在，建议大家保持谨慎。

　　《财经》首席经济学家沈明高认为，中国经济若想真正见底反转，不仅要靠内需，还要靠外需的支援。沈明高告诉《红周刊》记者，“2008年经济大幅度放慢，很大程度上是内外经济双重调整的结果。政府扩大内需的政策或有助于短期内稳定经济；但与1997年亚洲金融危机时相比，这次扩大内需是在外需可能持续乏力情况下的'单兵作战'，中国经济很可能会在未来较长的时间内以内需增长为主。”

　　至于股市当前的走势，马骏告诉记者，中国股市近3 个月以来的反弹就预示着实体经济将要反弹。“市场常规的观点是'股市提前于经济'，但是，为什么股市会提前经济？很少有人提出类似疑问。答案就在刚才我讲到的金融机构新增信贷规模上。金融机构将流动性释放出来，首先便会体现在虚拟经济上，而实体经济由于资金出入会有一个过程，所以显得比股市要慢一点。”马骏预计中国股市将在2009年出现持续反弹机会，而在最近面世的新书《看不懂的中国股市》的封底寄语中，赤子之心基金经理赵丹阳则对中国股市长期走势表示乐观：“从世界各国股市的历史发展来看，中国股市最近这轮大幅调整是在她成长过程中必须经历和面对的。我们相信，中国股市未来将迎来一个超级大牛市。中华民族的复兴力量势不可挡。”

　　不过，马骏同时建议投资者不要将经济与股市一一对应，因为股市变动还受到利率等其他因素的制约。

最后发表： reporterma
回复内容：
http://player.sbs.com.au/naca/#/ ... EEPING-JOBS-PART-1/

最后发表： hunyou
回复内容：
enjoy

最后发表： yemingoops
回复内容：
就差世界大战了。。。。。。。。。。

最后发表： dengmei1007
回复内容：
楼上的大哥，我是刚来悉尼的新移民，在国内做了10年的电工，现在打算读TAFE ，希望给你做学徒。我给你发过油箱了 ，我的联系方式是: guanzhaoyang@126.com. 电话是 042 198 4 198

最后发表： tascochina
回复内容：
多谢回复！祝大家牛年万事如意！

最后发表： thewall
回复内容：
楼主你本科选择了念文科

我想问问你：你当年为什么不选理工科，是否喜欢文科

最后发表： 春风吹又生
回复内容：
也来顶一下！

最后发表： 华峤
回复内容：
非常感谢!只要坚持一定会成功的。

最后发表： bigben23
回复内容：
最后，建议在购买小生前，先仔细参阅新洲政府的小生意网站：www.smallbiz.nsw.gov.au 中starting a small business中的buy a business,里面有很多tips,非常有用。
---
标记下，感谢分享！

最后发表： nizi
回复内容：

最后发表： thislin
回复内容：
我建议她上完第一天班再问工资的事情，ls你觉得如何？虽然这工作是pt的，但试用一个月最起码也要去10几次，如果不给工资那就亏大了
另外我ld需要问问合同的问题吗？小公司人员少，似乎不太正规

最后发表： helenazy
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我建议你把申请移民的材料都随身带着, 最好再扫描个电子版的.

最后发表： donkey
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一拜全家好；
二拜困难少；
三拜烦恼消；
四拜不变老；
五拜儿女孝；
六拜幸福绕；
七拜忧愁抛；
八拜收入高；
九拜平安罩；
十拜乐逍遥

最后发表： 上海老克勒
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不要问了， 没有用处。

最后发表： nizi
回复内容：
主要看上下文，应该差不多这个意思！

最后发表： alexchen
回复内容：
因为换汇限额，如果我找几个人帮我一起换，可以一起合并汇出去吗？还是必须不同的人分别汇出去？另外，其他人可以把钱汇给我吗，还是必须自己汇给自己？我准备卖房后在中行换和电汇，很多东西还不了解，谢谢

最后发表： davis555
回复内容：
可是被你雷倒了，澳洲不适合你，法律法规健全

最后发表： aareon
回复内容：
RBA降利息..你的存款利息当然跟着变的.

最后发表： 退休养老的人
回复内容：
各人算一半

最后发表： 坏熊猫
回复内容：
其实，像82兄这样的条件，退役后当警察不错，年薪不少。在军队练过的，对付几个坏人没问题

最后发表： 上书房行走
回复内容：
是工程咨询公司吗？很多工程公司都靠BHPB活着~所幸我们公司的项目能幸存到六月以后，但再后面就不清楚如何了。

最后发表： cyndi666
回复内容：
这是一本关于澳人的常用SLANG的书,还配上幽默的卡通插图.
我以前也看过,还和LZ一样TYPE记录下来,可惜重装系统,不小心把它给删掉了,郁闷了好久.
LZ,辛苦了!感谢分享!

最后发表： MacroJ
回复内容：
呃，我想，语感也有分专业工作和生活的吧？

最后发表： 水黯舞
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IBM China - Beijing PCP building, MSN: chendean@hotmail.com, 现在Sydney.

最后发表： MacroJ
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最后发表： adelaidesky
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