个人测算：G5明年4月启动，5月全面铺开

paulchen

本文所据资料http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/g ... ity5-processing.htm
Each week around 1000 priority affected cases are allocated to case officers. These allocations are currently made up of all available applications from Priority Group 1 and 3, with the balance being Priority Group 4 cases. There are no GSM visa subclasses in Priority Group 2.

As of 18 November 2011 there are around 751 applications lodged in Australia and 5544 applications lodged from outside Australia Priority Group 4 cases awaiting allocation. Since 1 July 2011, approximately 1481 applications lodged in Australia and 2702 applications lodged from outside Australia Priority Group 4 cases have been received, with some of the applications from in Australia having been allocated to case officers.

Based on the number of applications on hand and anticipated application rates for Priority Groups 1 and 3, the department expects to commence allocating some Priority Group 5 applications this program year.

There are currently approximately 27 347 applications lodged from in Australia and 15 284 applications lodged from outside Australia Priority Group 5 cases awaiting allocation.
Processing of Priority Group 5 applications lodged in Australia will begin with the remaining applications in the visa subclasses in effect prior to September 2007, the oldest of which was lodged on 28 July 2005. There are approximately 756 cases in this group.

Processing of Priority Group 5 applications lodged outside Australia will begin with applications in visa subclasses 495 and 496, which were lodged prior to 1 September 2007, the oldest of which was lodged on 10 July 2006. Unlike other GSM visa applications lodged from outside Australia, prior to 1 September 2007, these applications were not effected by the Minister's Cap and Cease arrangements. There are approximately 594 cases in this group.

本人分析
20110701以来，到201118，共20周，每周接到新G4申请209.15份，即210份，这说明，每周审理的旧G4案子是790份。现在还有6295份G4申请，则按每周处理1000份申请算，约8周（6295÷790=7.96≈8周，则从20111121开始，加上圣诞新年假期，约到明年三月）所有G4处理完毕（G1、G3数量少，可以忽略不计，放一个余量即可）。如此，20070901以前的1350份G5（包括境内外）在201204就可以开始处理了（所需时间1350÷790=1.7≈2周，算4周）。放宽算，当月处理完毕，则201205开始，就可以处理20070901以后的G5.目前有4万多G5，按现有速度测算，需15个月全部批完，则至迟201307，所有现在等待的G5朋友便可大功告成。

注：以上测算基础是，现有政策不变，比较严格，所以每周新增G4审理数量约为210个。见下面。
The number of Priority Group 5 applications processed this program year will ultimately depend on the number of higher priority applications received, and other factors including any change in the size of the Migration Program or variation of the Processing Direction. Many Priority Group 5 applicants still face a considerable wait until their application is allocated to a case officer for processing and may want to consider other options available.

[ 本帖最后由 paulchen 于 8-12-2011 12:11 编辑 ]

pooh210

谢谢，看着就喜庆。

paulchen

大家可以自己根据网上资料算一下。如果不出意外，没有新的政策出来折腾，大致会按这个时间表发展。现在澳大利亚的经济恢复比较快，移民比较多，如果欧洲及北美市场恢复，则这两个地方的移民会减少，澳大利亚的处理速度会更快。他们的经济发展需要大量移民。这是国策。

Shanshanlai

觉得楼主分析的很有理，谢谢分享。。。

happyAu

如果4月才开始审理07.9之前的，为啥移民局提早半年就放消息了？

paulchen

在本财年肯定会审理20070901之前的案子，只是多少问题。但是，20070901之前的案子极少，不够塞牙缝的，所以很快就会审理之后的案子了。即使明年4月不审理20070901之前的案子，五六月也会审理的。

[ 本帖最后由 paulchen 于 6-12-2011 19:06 编辑 ]

wxbb

回楼上
2007.09之前的案子都退费了

pooh210

还有onshore的，而且上面的文章说，There are approximately 594 cases in this group.

蝴蝶悠兰

原帖由 wxbb 于 7-12-2011 02:01 发表

                               
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回楼上
2007.09之前的案子都退费了

2007年9月之前的案子并没有完全退费，还有一部分案子in the air

paulchen

原帖由 wxbb 于 7-12-2011 02:01 发表

                               
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回楼上
2007.09之前的案子都退费了

所以说之前的案子比较少，如果审理，速度会很快。

paulchen

原帖由 pooh210 于 7-12-2011 10:35 发表

                               
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还有onshore的，而且上面的文章说，There are approximately 594 cases in this group.

在数据计算时，这些已经考虑进去了。没有考虑的是G1-G3的人，但这类申请人数量极少，可以忽略不计。

超级小懒

哎。。。。。。。。。还要等这么久，四年多了

孤独马夫

不知道别人怎么样，反正我没有退费。慢慢地等着呗，顺祝楼主和各位移民新年快乐，龙年一切顺利！

kuafu

移民局周一更新的进度表明886、885的G5有所跟进。原因是885\886的G4已经没有积压。

待到4月份左右，175\176的G4处理处于尾声时，咱们大陆提交申请的G5同学就要开始发报喜帖了。
G3、G4、G5、GX是一家。

paulchen

原帖由 kuafu 于 24-1-2012 22:35 发表

                               
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移民局周一更新的进度表明886、885的G5有所跟进。原因是885\886的G4已经没有积压。

待到4月份左右，175\176的G4处理处于尾声时，咱们大陆提交申请的G5同学就要开始发报喜帖了。
G3、G4、G5、GX是一家。

完全同意夸父的看法

ddwing

G5境外的什么时候开始审批呢？难道要等到境内的审完再到境外的么？

hsuehhan

但是境内G4 G5很多的，我觉得一下子批到OFFSHORE 也不知道要到什么时候了。

Shanshanlai

不知道境内还有多少。。。祝所有G5 在龙年全部下签

paulchen

原帖由 ddwing 于 29-1-2012 01:35 发表 [img]http://www.migration.nt.gov.au

                               
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[/img]
G5境外的什么时候开始审批呢？难道要等到境内的审完再到境外的么？

境内的人数也不少。为了维稳，老外也要优先照顾他们的。但是，不可能境内的审理完毕才审境外的。这不合情理。

jack51888

谁知道啊 只有慢慢等了 希望不是CAP掉。

dian2012

目前来看境内的G5速度比预计的还快，希望境外G5赶快开闸，赶上来！

duibuqi

paulchen

Processing of Priority Group 5 General Skilled Migration Applications
Most General Skilled Migration (GSM) visa applications are subject to a Ministerial Direction which determines the priority in which they are considered. Applications are allocated to a case officer for processing based on the priority of an application according to the Direction.
See: Fact Sheet 24a – Priority Processing for Skilled Migration Visas

Each week the two GSM processing centres (Adelaide and Brisbane) allocate the highest priority applications on hand before the next highest, until there are sufficient applications allocated in each of the visa categories to meet the planning levels set by government in the 2011-12 Migration Program.
See: Migration Program Statistics

Allocation process and caseload
Each week approximately 1000 priority affected cases are allocated to case officers. Cases are allocated based on their priority group and whether they were lodged in or outside Australia.

In Australia
Allocation of applications lodged in Australia is currently made up of all available applications from Priority Groups 1, 3 and 4. If there are any remaining places available, then Priority Group 5 cases will be allocated. There are no GSM applications in Priority Group 2.

The department commenced allocating Priority Group 5 applications lodged in Australia in November 2011. As at 13 April 2012, all clients who lodged their application before 5 January 2009 have been contacted by their case officer. A further 21 471 Priority Group 5 cases are awaiting allocation.

Outside Australia
Allocation of applications lodged outside Australia is currently made up of all available applications from Priority Groups 1 and 3. If there are any remaining places available, then generally Priority Group 4 cases will be allocated. There are no GSM applications in Priority Group 2.

As at 13 April 2012 there were approximately 1840 Priority Group 4 cases lodged outside Australia awaiting allocation. A further 14 914 Priority Group 5 cases are also awaiting allocation.

Processing arrangements for Priority Group 5

Allocation of Priority Group 5 applications lodged outside Australia has commenced with applications in state sponsored GSM visa subclasses currently being allocated in the order they were received.

Allocation of state sponsored cases ahead of the remaining Priority Group 4 applications lodged outside Australia is due to there being a lower than anticipated number of applications lodged this program year under a State Migration Plan (Priority Group 3). This allocation includes applications in visa subclass 495 which, was not affected by the Minister’s Cap and Cease arrangements, unlike other GSM applications lodged outside Australia prior to 1 September 2007. All affected applications will be allocated to case officers during April and May 2012.

GSM has also limited the allocation of Skilled Australian Sponsored cases lodged in and outside Australia due to there being a low number of available visa places remaining this program year. Skilled Australian Sponsored applicants in both Priority Groups 4 and 5, whose applications are yet to be allocated to a case officer will be affected.

The allocation of Priority Group 5 applications lodged outside Australia is expected to continue in general date of lodgement order throughout the 2012-13 Migration Program year in line with available Migration Program places in the specific GSM visa categories.

The overall number of Priority Group 5 applications processed in any program year will ultimately depend on the number of higher priority applications received, and other factors, including the size of the Migration Program and its composition, and any variation of the Processing Direction.

Many Priority Group 5 applicants still face a considerable wait until their application is allocated to a case officer for processing and may want to consider other options available.
See: Fact Sheet 24a – Priority Processing for Skilled Migration Visas

Applicants can follow the progress of allocating GSM visa applications through the website.
See: Allocation Dates for General Skilled Migration Applications

liuxl7

预测的不错 啊

paulchen

Migration Program Statistics
The following table contains migration program outcomes for 2006–07 to 2010–11 and planning levels for 2011–12.

Category	2006–07 Outcome	2007–08 Outcome	2008–09 Outcome	2009–10 Outcome	2010–11 Outcome	2011–12 Planning Levels 9
Partner1	40 435	39 931	42 098	44 755	41 994	45 400
Child2	3008	3062	3238	3544	3300	3450
Preferential/Other Family3	2136	2378	2530	2468	750	1250
Parent4	4500	4499	8500	9487	8499	8500
Total Family	50 079	49 870	56 366	60 254	54 543	58 600
Employer Sponsored5	16 585	23 762	38 026	40 987	44 345	46 000
Skilled Independent	54 179	55 891	44 594	37 315	36 167	44 350
State/Territory Sponsored6	6928	7530	14 055	18 889	16 175	24 000
Skilled Australian Sponsored7	14 167	14 579	10 504	3688	9117	4100
Distinguished Talent	227	211	201	199	125	200
Business Skills8	5836	6565	7397	6789	7796	7200
1 November Onshore	0	2	0	1	0	0
Total Skill	97 922	108 540	114 777	107 868	113 725	125 850
Skill as percent of total program	66.1	68.4	67.0	64.0	67.4	68.0
Total Special Eligibility	199	220	175	501	417	550
Total Program	148 200	158 630	171 318	168 623	168 685	185 000

Note: Numbers have been rounded and totals may not be the exact sum of components.

Migration Program numbers do not include New Zealand citizens or holders of Secondary Movement Offshore Entry (Temporary), Secondary Movement Relocation (Temporary) and Temporary Protection Visas and are detailed at the top of the planning range.

1 Includes spouse, fiancé and interdependent. Net outcome as places taken by provisional visa holders who do not subsequently obtain permanent visas are returned to the Migration Program in the year that the temporary visas expire.

2 Includes Child-adoption, Child Dependent and Orphan Minor.

3 Includes Aged Dependent, Carer, Orphan Unmarried and Remaining Relatives.

4 Includes Designated, Contributory and Non-contributory Parents.

5 Includes Employer Nomination Scheme, Labour Agreement, Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme.

6 Includes State/Territory Nominated Independent Scheme and Skilled Independent Regional.

7 Includes brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, non-dependent children, working age parents, grandchildren and first cousins who have been skill tested.

8 Net outcome as cancelled visas are returned to the Migration Program in that year.

9 Initial Planning Level.

[ 本帖最后由 paulchen 于 1-5-2012 17:39 编辑 ]