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摘自会议纪要后面部分，
Considerations for Monetary Policy
Members noted the rapid deterioration in the world economy in the December quarter and the likelihood that many countries would experience further sizeable falls in output in the current quarter. Although there had been an improvement in conditions in global credit markets over recent months, a lack of clarity about how overseas authorities would resolve problems in their financial sectors had significantly weakened equity markets, particularly for financial stocks. These ongoing strains had continued to affect adversely the confidence of businesses and consumers across the world. Although significant macroeconomic policy stimulus had been put in place in many countries, it was too soon to see the effects of those measures; in some cases fiscal stimulus had been announced but not yet implemented. The near-term outlook for the global economy therefore remained very weak and official forecasts of world economic growth in 2009 were likely to be revised down further.
Members noted that the domestic financial system remained strong and the monetary policy transmission process was working to deliver large reductions in interest rates to end borrowers, particularly households. Early indications were that credit demand by households was responding to these changes. Nonetheless, while the Australian economy had so far remained stronger than many other economies, the speed and scale of the global economic deterioration and its effect on confidence meant that in the near term domestic activity would unavoidably be weak, and indicators for the most recent period would show that weakness as they were released. The latest available information suggested that the national accounts to be released the following day would probably show a small fall in GDP in the December quarter, a weaker outcome than had appeared likely a few days earlier, though not significantly different from forecasts made for the previous meeting.
Members further noted that the easing implemented over recent months was large by historical standards. These measures, together with very substantial fiscal policy measures, had been taken before official data were available to gauge the extent of economic weakness. Early indications were that the monetary and fiscal stimulus that had been applied to the economy was having an expansionary effect, but the size of this remained unclear and it would take some time for the full impact to come through.
The question for policy was whether further stimulus should be added at this meeting, or whether, having reduced rates at each meeting since September, the Board should pause for a further evaluation of the situation. Members could see reasonable cases for both courses of action. On balance, they judged that, having made a major change to monetary policy over the preceding several meetings in anticipation of weak economic conditions, the best course for this meeting was to leave the cash rate unchanged. Members believed this would leave adequate flexibility for policy at future meetings.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.25 per cent. |
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楼主: davis555
发表于 6-3-2009 14:20:40
又不是讨论移民的帖子
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