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本帖最后由 Owen_LIU 于 17-7-2015 16:15 编辑
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
央行主管 格伦 史蒂文斯：货比政策决定
于 2015年7月7日：
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.
在7日的会议上，董事会决定现金利率维持在2.0%不变。
The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, but some key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago. This trend appears largely to reflect increased supply, including from Australia. Australia's terms of trade are falling nonetheless.
全球经济被期望在一个较稳定温和的发展节奏下，不过一些关键性商品的价格却比一年前便宜很多。这一趋势逐渐明显和加大，意味着包含澳大利亚在内的国家在商品供给量方面比较大。但是，澳大利亚在贸易方面还是下滑。
The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Hence, global financial conditions remain very accommodative. Despite fluctuations in markets associated with the respective developments in China and Greece, long-term borrowing rates for most sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remain remarkably low.
联邦银行被预期在下半年会加强它的货币政策，不过一些其他中央银行却继续保持宽松政策。于是，全球的经济情况仍是维持在宽松状态下。在不考虑市场浮动尤其是发展中的中国与希腊等情况下，对于大多数国家和私人借款者来说，长期的贷款利率仍是非常低的。
In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy has continued to grow over the past year, but at a rate somewhat below its longer-term average. The rate of unemployment, though elevated, has been little changed recently. Overall, the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. With very slow growth in labour costs, inflation is forecast to remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
在澳大利亚，一些信息表明澳洲经济在去年持续增长，不过利率应该低于长期的平均利率。尽管失业率有所提升，也只是在最近有一点变化。总体来说，在一段时间内，澳洲经济将基于自身剩余产能进行发展。在劳动力成本增长不大的情况下，未来的一到两年中，预计通货膨胀将不会变化或甚至有所降低。
In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. Credit is recording moderate growth overall, with stronger borrowing by businesses and growth in lending to the housing market broadly steady over recent months. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates.
在澳洲如此的经济情况下，货比政策需要相对宽松。低利率将会支持借贷和消费的发展。据统计，基于强劲的商业借贷和稳定的房地产借贷增长，信贷业在过往几个月保持稳定增长。在悉尼，房产价格也是强劲上涨；尽管这样的情况在其他首府城市略有不同。央行与其他监管机构也在试图评估和控制房地产市场中可能产生的风险。在其他资本市场中，长期的低利率也支持了股票与商业房产等。
The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.
尽管澳元不低于国际货币均值，不过在去年可以看到澳币相对美元下跌明显。澳元进一步缩水将极有可能并且是必须的，尤其是在商品价格方面的下调。
The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
董事会在7日的会议决定维持现金利率不变是合适的。基于前期从经济和财务方面得到的信息，董事会将评估利率维持在2.0%的是否能有效的提高澳洲经济增长和保持稳定的通货膨胀。
关键词
1. 需要低利率，意味着利率很难上升并极有可能再下降。
2. 需要货币贬值，意味着澳币将有可能进一步缩水。
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发表于 17-7-2015 16:16:32
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