大车的市场不再，六缸车注定退出市场

西澳海豚 · 发表于 27-1-2013 08:24:37

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或许对澳洲人来说这是一件很感伤的事，陪伴著他们将近半个世纪的车型 falcon 可能于今年停产。

2012年的falcon销售量只剩10000辆，与全盛时期 95年 81,000比起来，只剩下1/8。

另外一型 holden commondore 也好不到哪里，从 98年的 94,000 辆，下降到2012年的 30,000辆

commondore 快速的反应市场，推出省油的四缸发动机是这一场存活战，生存下来的原因。

市场已经逐渐抛弃大型房车，已经是很明显的趋势，在油价140-150c的今日，再也没有消费者愿意付出更多的钱在汽油上面。

Holden and Ford once dominated the local market, but their bigger-is-best mantra - and the rise of SUVs - means sales have slumped.

On November 29, 1948, the first Holden rolled off the company's Melbourne assembly line.

Regardless of anything else you have heard about the politics, timing and corporate machinations that went with it, these are the facts: the 48-215 Holden (or FX Holden, as it soon became known) weighed about 1000 kilograms. It could cruise at 100km/h and would do about 130km/h flat out. It could travel 48 kilometres on a gallon (4.55 litres) of fuel (about 9.5 litres per 100 kilometres) and seat six people. And it was powered by a straight-six engine.

The die, as they say in the classics, was cast.

Suddenly, Australia had a car industry, and the pubic instinctively knew that the formula of a biggish sedan with a decent boot and that magical, smooth six-cylinder was precisely what this land of sweeping plains needed. Car makers were all ears.

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So were the importers and assemblers, and, by 1960, Ford Australia had joined in the fun with its XK model of that year.

Unfortunately, basing the Falcon on a US-market car had disastrous results, which manifested in the front ends literally falling off the things on our bush tracks. But Ford learnt quickly and soon beefed up the Falcon, eventually switching to a proper, locally designed car, the XA, 12 years later.

Ford Falcons went on to become some of the best-selling models ever and gave the Holden opposition terrible grief in the 1970s and '80s. Chrysler wanted in, too. By the early '60s, it was assembling American models, but by 1963 the first local Valiant, the AP5, had broken cover and taken performance to a new level with the ''Slant Six'' engine.

OK, so much for the Big Three (as Holden, Ford and Chrysler were known), but the concept of the Aussie six was so good that others wanted in on the act, too. A shame, then, that they mostly got it wrong (see facing page).

The main players more or less had the market to themselves, although Chrysler imploded in the early '80s, taking the Valiant franchise down with it, and Holden and Ford had their highs and lows.

In later years, six-cylinder Mitsubishi Magnas and 380s, and Toyota Avalons, Aurions and Camrys weighed in with mixed results, and Nissan made a big play in the '80s with its locally built and very popular Skyline.

Through it all, the average bloke with a tribe of kids and a tinny that needed towing on Saturdays looked to the family six as the default setting for his day-to-day transport requirements.

According to a former Holden NSW and Queensland public affairs manager (and a Holden employee for 45 years from 1955), Marc McInnes, the product and our cultural past were what gave the ''family six'' phenomenon its legs.

''Through the 1930s, the bestsellers were six-cylinder cars; Chevrolets in particular,'' he says. ''Go back even further and most prestige cars were six-cylinder models. Stuff like Buicks.

''V8s back then were seen as luxury cars, but a six-cylinder was aspirational and reachable.''

McInnes says it's easy to forget just how good the first Holden was.

''When the FX was released, against just about everything else around, it was larger-capacity, smoother, yet was still a lightweight car. In fact, it had the performance to see off a V8 Ford, and nothing could out-accelerate it.

''The FX had good throttle response and economy. That cemented the reputation of the Holden six.''

But clearly the world has moved on. And so have family car buyers.

In fact, despite those early highs, the future for the Aussie six looks grim. Ford and Holden have new models in the pipeline, but they'll be rehashes of the current models.

Beyond 2016, when both are expected to be phased out, there won't be another locally developed full-size family car. Ford and General Motors have made it clear that any future large cars will be global vehicles, not made-for-Australia specials. And while there's a chance the highly regarded design and engineering teams from Ford and Holden will play a hand in such a development, they're unlikely to lead the charge.

It comes down to the numbers: sales of the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon stink.

The Commodore crashed from almost 100,000 annual sales (94,642) in 1998 to just 30,532 in 2012. And the Falcon is in free fall, plunging from the heights of 81,366 sales in 1995 to sometimes fewer than 1000 a month in 2012, despite posting record overall sales topping 1.1 million units that year.

So what the hell happened?

The real problem is that even though the product became faster and better equipped, it simply didn't evolve in other areas.

Engines became more efficient, but steadily increasing kerb weights - and this is a crucial point - meant fuel economy wasn't much better than the FX's of 1948. Remember the FX's 9.5L/100km fuel economy? Well, the 2012 Holden Commodore SV6 with a six-speed automatic has an official government consumption figure of - wait for it - 9.5L/100km. This is largely because it weighs about 1700 kilograms, compared with the 1948 car's 1000 kilograms. Anyway, while the cars were bigger, so were we, so that hardly seemed like a real advance.

Also, McInnes says that in the past 10 years or so, four-cylinder engines closed the performance gap on six-cylinders, leaving the bigger engine thirstier with no tangible gain.

''Turbocharging has been the key,'' he says. ''In today's driving environment, a 1.4-litre turbo has got all the poke you need.''

More cultural rot set in when then prime minister John Howard and his foxhole buddy, US president George Dubya, declared war on anybody who wasn't like us. Global jitters after September 11, 2001, sent the price of crude oil up 18 per cent as the coalition of the willing marched into the Middle East, the rest of the world hunkered down into survival mode and the big oil-producing concerns began smelling fully franked dividends.

Suddenly, the dollars showing on the bowser were clicking around faster than the litres. This just wasn't Australian.

The green lobby that emerged in the 1990s has also been a factor in the demise of big, relatively thirsty cars. In an age when safety and performance are givens, it's a car's green credentials that help separate it from the pack. Not for nothing do cars carry energy ratings the way washing machines and fridges do.

The emergence of the SUV from the 1990s must also shoulder responsibility for the demise of the conventional family car. The marketing and sales manager for industry analyst Glass's Guide, Nick Adamidis, says the move to SUVs is the most telling factor.

''Buyers see the perceived safety and usability as a major bonus with SUVS,'' he says. But Adamidis is less convinced that the green lobby has had such an effect.

''If you look at the sales of hybrids and electric cars, it's a very small percentage of the market and most of those are government fleet buyers,'' he says.

But the green argument holds water when you look at what has happened to the big, bush-bruising SUVs that started the trend.

Downsizing was identified by most SUV makers and this explains the rise (and rise) of the compact SUV. Adamidis agrees it's a category that has threatened the survival of the family six in this country.

Look at any supermarket car park, any school dropoff zone and any boat ramp at the weekend and it's a fair bet the Commodores and Falcons will be seriously outnumbered by the Outlanders, Foresters, X-Trails, RAV4s, CX-5s and CR-Vs. But the question remains: If the rest of the world could tailor its product to give consumers the car they thought they needed with the planet-saving qualities they wanted (small SUVs replacing big ones), why hasn't the Australian family six done the same?

The short answer is that it has. To an extent.

Toyota looked towards hybrid technology and began building a local Camry with hybrid technology. Holden went down the LPG trail, while Ford had a foot in that camp as well as having a dip at the downsized-engine theory. In fact, the EcoBoost Falcon - to give the 2.0-litre four-cylinder Falcon its proper name - is pretty much the best Falcon you can buy brand-new at the moment. But a lack of effective marketing and the fact the car is no longer powered by a six-cylinder has conspired to make buyers either ignorant or wary. Maybe both.

Either way, it smells strongly of too little, too late. And, of course, even if Australian car buyers suddenly re-embrace local makers, it won't be full-size sedans with big six-cylinder engines marching out of showrooms. Nor are the cars in question likely to have been developed for local conditions by local engineers.

Talk to car company execs and you'll be smiled at and told the future is bright. But a long-term commitment to a locally developed and built family car?

''Er, we don't talk about future product.''

Five of the best
Holden 48-215 FX 1948-53 The first Holden was a smash hit thanks to its genuine abilities and suitability to local conditions.
Ford Falcon XY 1970-72 The last of its series, the XY showed what a few years of refinement could do. GT and GTHO halo models still have a profound effect on the Aussie motoring psyche.
Nissan Skyline 1986-91 The locally tuned version of the Skyline was a great car with handling that shamed the locals.
Holden Commodore VT 1997-2000 Stunning looks and an independent rear-end across the range suddenly brought the Commodore into the ’90s. Sporty feel in all but the base model made it aspirational.
Ford Falcon BA XR6 Turbo 2002-05 BA put the memories of the AU to rest (mostly) but the highlight was the turbo version, boasting the best locally developed engine we’d seen.

Five misses
Ford Falcon XK 1960-62 Almost ruined Ford’s local-production program before it began. US-designed Falcon just couldn’t cut it on local roads and fell to bits. Quick redesign was a winner, but damage was done.
Austin Kimberley/Tasman 1970-73 Design was ahead of its time but the front-drive, in-line six version of an Austin 1800 just didn’t work here. Leyland build quality was another big problem.
Ford Falcon AU 1998-2002 Very first version of AU put numberplates on ugly. Skinny wheels and tyres, gangly ride-height, and that grille! Plenty of styling revisions quickly followed, but it was too late.
Holden HD 1965-66 A more modern-looking Holden, once you got past silly detail at the front. Even bigger problem was rust, which could quickly consume a HD.
Leyland P76 1973-74 The V8 version of the P76 has its fans, but the six-cylinder was just tragic. Boot could allegedly fit a 44-gallon drum, but it wouldn’t contain the amount of a buyer’s remorse.

zzoz · 发表于 27-1-2013 08:38:34

不管天鹅财长和统计局怎么说，零售业明显的显示出大家口袋紧了，大排量车自然受影响
好像小排量加turbo和柴油开始流行起来

[ 本帖最后由 zzoz 于 27-1-2013 09:40 编辑 ]

牧马人 · 发表于 27-1-2013 08:55:03

没有了土炮的支撑，本土的holden和ford怎么存活？

doudou720 · 发表于 27-1-2013 08:55:07

That's ture things

西澳海豚 · 发表于 27-1-2013 09:10:47

大车不讨喜，已经是很明显的事。

Ford 还在为大型 SUV TERRITORY 的销量高兴，但以我来看，这也是明日黄花。

ing · 发表于 27-1-2013 12:49:51

数据有误， 2012 FALCON 的销量应该是10，000台左右，而不是1，000 台。不过FORD 大型土炮的停产应该是这1到2年的事，除非有奇迹发生。如果FORD的本土生产全部停止，那又得多少人失业了。开过FALCON 的几个型号，还真是不错的车，特别是12年款的FALCON LPG, 4.0 原装燃气发动机，动力非常充沛，完全改变了我对烧气的车的印象，加一次气 30多快钱，可以跑5-600KM ，销量还不好，只能怪车价格太贵了。

ing · 发表于 27-1-2013 13:07:21

说道 TERRITORY，我自己觉得是目前澳洲市场上一款非常不错的中型 SUV，也是FORD 目前销量最好的本土车（FOCUS 是进口）， 2.7L柴油的中等配置的车目前市场价格是 44，000左右（DRIVE AWAY)，去年有一个月推出
员工价32，000 DRIVE AWAY, 只限员工购买，今年又推出 34，000 DRIVE AWAY ，我就奇怪了，这价格卖给员工FORD 肯定不会亏钱的，只是赚钱多少的问题，如果真想提高销量，直接以市场价 34-35，000 DRIVE AWAY，肯定能抢占不少市场份额的嘛。还一直维持4W4的价格，那消费者可选择的余地就多了，当然大公司有自己的市场定位和策略，但价格永远是消费者第一考虑的要素的。销量不好，最后只能关闭生产线，裁员。

西澳海豚 · 发表于 27-1-2013 13:15:43

falcon 2012 销售的确是 10000辆，资料有误，已改正！

test1ok · 发表于 27-1-2013 14:12:57

Falcon对应欧洲的哪个型号呢？

西澳海豚 · 发表于 27-1-2013 18:04:35

原帖由 test1ok 于 27-1-2013 15:12 发表

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Falcon对应欧洲的哪个型号呢？

不懂？

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Falcon_(Australia)

给你参考！

pzhero · 发表于 28-1-2013 18:57:24

不会吧，30多元的气能跑5-600公里。我2.0L的佳美，一罐气60L，才跑400左右呢。

pzhero · 发表于 28-1-2013 19:06:06

我觉得消亡的可能性是没有的，因为还有一些越野车，SUV, 七座车存在。这些车可能还得以六缸为主。我觉得将来在普通的SEDAN或HATCH 车上用六缸发动机的可能会减少。因为随着发动机技术的进步，升功率的提高，普通车四缸发动机已足够应付。当然还有一个原因就是汽油越来越贵，环保要求越来越高。购置税对不同排量车的区别也越来越大。大家不约而同地选择小排量车了。

wy92520 · 发表于 28-1-2013 19:58:26

主要是油价太高

我的霍巴特 · 发表于 28-1-2013 20:28:20

早晚一天都要回归到11路步行时代。

retirement · 发表于 28-1-2013 20:35:31

还想着俺那个拖拉机能开个十来年呢

ing · 发表于 28-1-2013 21:23:06

对的， FALCON 的烧气有好几款，我开过XR6 和 GR6, 各开了个把月的样子，一个是运动款，一个是普通轿车款，气罐好像是80多升的，一般不会没了去加气，都是还剩个一两格去加（这气不是每个地方都有啊，所以留点余量保险），通常都加个5-60升的， 30多吧，电脑显示跑 500-600公里的样子，平均大约12-13升/100KM ，如果全加满，跑到没气，应该一罐可以跑700KM 的样子。因为是全烧气，不烧油，所以没有那种AFTERMARKET 加个气罐在尾箱占地方，尾箱跟正常的FALCON 一样大，给我影像比较深的是这车加速非常快， 0-100KM 应该不到8秒，我没亲自测过，但感觉应该差不多，特别是XR6，一脚油门（气门？），绝对的推背感。以前开过别人的马3改烧气（仍然启动要少少油那种），感觉完全没力，特别是上坡，所以一直对烧气的车感觉不太好，但开过FALCON 的烧气车后，完全改变了自己的看法，动力上（除了刚刚启动的时候有点点不同）基本感觉不出来跟烧油的有太大的区别。

ing · 发表于 28-1-2013 21:34:05

都是普罗大众开的车，关键还是价格啊，烧气的 XR6 运动版现在卖 45000， G6E 要5万以上，车是好车，但价格不好，有什么用，佳美的混动才3万出头，就是顶配也不到4W，行驶成本差不多，一个贵1W，你买哪个？

ingeer · 发表于 29-1-2013 10:00:03

原帖由 ing 于 28-1-2013 22:34 发表

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都是普罗大众开的车，关键还是价格啊，烧气的 XR6 运动版现在卖 45000， G6E 要5万以上，车是好车，但价格不好，有什么用，佳美的混动才3万出头，就是顶配也不到4W，行驶成本差不多，一个贵1W，你买哪个？

Absolutely Camry

Sunglasses · 发表于 29-1-2013 12:34:05

其实同时，澳洲也是一个对V8 车疯狂的国家了，几十年的赛事就证明了

只是经济低潮时，人们更容易2 头化了，而且海外的冲击太多了。现在的好车不仅仅比价格，设计的理念也很重要了，还有管理的成本和制作的成本也是注定一些车厂要关门的了。

masonwaapa · 发表于 29-1-2013 13:03:14

V8

Japanese car is soft
America/ Aussie is big and hard

V8~~~~~~~~~~V8~~~~~~~~~

milanmengxiang · 发表于 30-1-2013 16:49:18

大排量车不会消亡的，只是澳洲这几年SUV的兴起，使得大型房车COMMODORE,FALCON失去了他们原来的优势。现在除了政府采购，就真的只有怀旧者会去买它了。而且FORD总部执行ONE FORD的策略，对澳洲本土车FALCON也是诸多不屑。

但是如果这两款车都停产，警察要用什么车？目前还看不到有现款车可以代替它们的。特别是HIGHWAY PATROL用的SS,空间大，马力大。我也挺喜欢SS SPORTSWAGON.

牧马人 · 发表于 30-1-2013 17:04:06

停产不停产还是取决于商业上的考虑，如果本土的销量支撑不了工厂流水线和工人等等成本的开销，停产是迟早的事情，毕竟车厂的老板不是政府也不是警察局。

死了张屠户也不会吃带毛猪，空间大的大排量车不只有土炮，美国有好多款这种车，有需求拿过来卖就是了，不需要承担工厂成本。

tulip_liu · 发表于 30-1-2013 18:09:23

支持holden支持国货哈哈哈大家hold住！

Cage · 发表于 21-9-2013 01:41:37

ing 发表于 28-1-2013 21:23

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对的， FALCON 的烧气有好几款，我开过XR6 和 GR6, 各开了个把月的样子，一个是运动款，一个是普通轿车款 ...

说的是烧LPi的吧，扭矩和功率都很牛逼。

hpwan2 · 发表于 23-9-2013 09:27:54

福特也出了4缸的ecoBoost，结果广告做得弱智无比……

大家的评论是：过十几年以后这款车会很快被收藏者买光，因为“存世量”太少了。。

kuberk · 发表于 23-9-2013 09:34:00

来了澳洲还没有来得及多体验体验土炮的感觉，这车就退出市场了。。。

hpwan2 · 发表于 23-9-2013 13:34:12

kuberk 发表于 23-9-2013 09:34

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来了澳洲还没有来得及多体验体验土炮的感觉，这车就退出市场了。。。

二手车多得是。。

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