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标题: 新一轮矿业风暴又要来咯 [打印本页]

作者: nlb 时间: 27-11-2014 11:20
标题: 新一轮矿业风暴又要来咯
不是啥好消息 https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewes ... 4b-savings-squeeze/

BHP Billiton is putting pressure on its suppliers to accept contract cuts of as much as 25 per cent as it seeks to shave $US4 billion ($4.6 billion) from its annual operating costs in the next two years.

所有的supplier不照办的话，就有可能丢合同了。对矿业和矿业对口公司的打击是巨大的，深度裁员无法避免，而且不光是这些矿业巨头了。

身在矿区，感觉明显。

据当地消息说，12月底BHP还要再来一轮Job Cuts，Rio也有着盘算。

前几天DSL，（Rio旗下盐矿商，120人团队直接干走了18个人，无任何征兆）

Karratha常住人口掉到15k，高峰的时候小30k吧。Port Hedland貌似短期内还算稳定，on-going 的 projects还不少，但是空房遍地。我住的block 14个3室的units，BHP的房子占8户全空....

作者: Samuel_ChenSJ 时间: 27-11-2014 12:33

山雨欲来风满楼啊！

作者: 我的霍巴特 时间: 27-11-2014 12:39
出来混，迟早要还的。

作者: davidmouse 时间: 27-11-2014 12:53
风暴不是坏事，把这些年的水分挤挤干。让来西澳的淘金掠夺者都回去吧；矿企也重组下，那些高成本的企业都淘汰掉，今后的市场还在。只是时间问题。

作者: 游兵 时间: 27-11-2014 13:11
OPERATION不会停,基础消费量还是很大的,现在要砍的最多是预建和在建PROJECT,这事08年时就砍过一次,BHP投资$20亿以上的镍矿一下就关了,现在再差也不会比那时更惨.

要是对中国发展有信心,就看好澳矿长期吧!

作者: 游兵 时间: 27-11-2014 13:12
LZ在哪个矿?

作者: QA1439 时间: 27-11-2014 13:58
中国的铁矿石进口短期内绝无好转可能了。
房地产是板上钉钉不能继续玩下去了。光靠造高铁和造公路能才能消耗掉多少钢铁。
国内的钢铁企业产能严重过剩，都趴在地上了。
我老家就是钢铁企业所在地，情况很不乐观，工人工资砍掉不少。很惨很惨。

作者: civil3d 时间: 27-11-2014 15:51
看来没有最惨，只有更惨啊。。。

作者: nlb 时间: 27-11-2014 16:32
个人觉得，长远来说钢铁需求还是硬的，阿三据说过个10年20年能顶上来。但是短期矿业是不会多好的，所为短期说的也是5年以上的事，感觉。

我在黑港，矿港吧，也不算newman之类真正的矿区。

作者: 诸神的黄昏 时间: 27-11-2014 17:54

davidmouse 发表于 27-11-2014 13:53
风暴不是坏事，把这些年的水分挤挤干。让来西澳的淘金掠夺者都回去吧；矿企也重组下，那些高成本的企业都淘 ...

没错！

作者: 诸神的黄昏 时间: 27-11-2014 17:54

davidmouse 发表于 27-11-2014 13:53
风暴不是坏事，把这些年的水分挤挤干。让来西澳的淘金掠夺者都回去吧；矿企也重组下，那些高成本的企业都淘 ...

没错！！

作者: nlb 时间: 27-11-2014 18:10
重组的idea是不错，不过问题是重组几年才能反弹呢，澳洲要是矿业低迷5年，不知道多少人喝西北风。重组了之后还是寡头赚钱，对老百姓也没啥好处。

活在食物链低端的大众们，还不是希望太平些的好。

作者: hec66 时间: 27-11-2014 21:41
矿价无论怎么跌，也跌不到两托的成本价，人家裁裁员更健康。最傻逼的是诸如中信中冶中钢鞍钢武钢这几年新近的项目，还都尼玛磁铁矿，项目各个成本在百元甚至以上，何年才能翻身？

作者: 西澳海豚 时间: 27-11-2014 21:59
铁矿这一波的风头已过，这是确定的！

不过，矿物就是这样，十年河东，十年河西。

每条狗都有他的一天----------- 何时轮到我们阿？

作者: civil3d 时间: 27-11-2014 22:15

西澳瓶鼻海豚发表于 27-11-2014 22:59
铁矿这一波的风头已过，这是确定的！

不过，矿物就是这样，十年河东，十年河西。

。。。。。。。无语，难道是无奈的抗议吗？

作者: AUS_BRIGHT 时间: 27-11-2014 22:22
看样子，佩斯是不能去了！

作者: saifen 时间: 27-11-2014 22:29
身在铁矿，不知道还能坚持多久啊，看来要捂紧荷包，准备好过冬得粮食了

作者: 8080 时间: 28-11-2014 02:33
Jobs in doubt in Koolan collapse

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewes ... in-koolan-collapse/

Disaster has struck again at the worst possible time for Mount Gibson Iron, with its Koolan Island mine flooding as iron ore dipped beneath $US70/t for the first time in more than five years.
The high-grade mine is now flooded to sea level after a section of its sea wall slumped on Tuesday, the third time in a month the wall has moved. While earlier slumps had left the wall strong enough to withstand the Kimberley high tide, on Tuesday night a section of the wall sank below the tide mark and the pit flooded.
Mount Gibson said yesterday it was still assessing the impact of the disaster. But the 2km-long pit is fully flooded, throwing doubt over the immediate future of the mine and its 350 workers.
All non-essential work was suspended yesterday, as Mount Gibson's technical teams assessed the damage to the sea wall and how best to fix the problem.
With an average reserve grade of 63.9 per cent iron ore, Koolan is the jewel in Mount Gibson's crown.
It was ramping up to a 4 million tonne a year export rate when the first wall slump interrupted production in October. A second incident this month forced Mount Gibson to downgrade its financial year production guidance by 600,000t, to between 6mt and 6.4mt, saying it would cost $5 million to $10 million and take three months to fix the damage.
Mount Gibson requested a trading halt yesterday.
Fellow mid-tier producer BC Iron also took action in response to the falling iron ore price.
Iron ore fell to $US69.60 on Tuesday night. The falling Aussie dollar brought some relief, falling to four-year lows, but benchmark iron ore prices for 62 per cent ore still sit at only $81.60.
BC Iron announced three of its non-executive directors would step down, including founding managing director Mike Young, Malcolm McComas and relative newcomer Peter Wilshaw, who only joined the board a year ago. The remaining non-executive directors had agreed to pay cuts.
BC Iron chairman Tony Kiernan said the cuts were a response to the tough conditions.
Despite Tuesday night's iron ore price falls, BC Iron shares ended yesterday 1.5Â¢ higher at 58.5Â¢. Mineral Resources gained 5Â¢ to $7.79. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto posted strong gains, with BHP up 43Â¢, or 1.3 per cent, to $32.53. Rio shares gained 98Â¢, or 1.7 per cent, to $58.39.
Fortescue Metals Group ended down 2Â¢ at $2.79, and Atlas Iron dropped 1Â¢ to 19.5Â¢.

作者: circleyue 时间: 28-11-2014 09:43
本帖最后由 circleyue 于 28-11-2014 11:03 编辑

铁矿没到底呢，很多中小矿还在坚持，大矿拼命挖，价格会不断降。
等到关得差不多了，就到底了。
或大胆预测一下，等到连FORTESCUE METALS这样的都不行了，那么就见底了。

所以大家要准备好，要flexible。

Mentally flexible (敢于学习新的东西，敢于跳出不看好的行业，敢于冒风险，敢于be uncomfortable。。。。）
Financial flexible （余粮留足，不浪费，学会plan，有机会也不要犹豫）
and Physically flexible （不要困守，要敢于move，敢于去适应不段变化的社会，树挪死人挪活，这点最不容易做，得别对有家庭的来讲）

这些是别人总结的，自己受益匪浅

作者: 游兵 时间: 28-11-2014 12:07

nlb 发表于 27-11-2014 17:32
个人觉得，长远来说钢铁需求还是硬的，阿三据说过个10年20年能顶上来。但是短期矿业是不会多好的，所为短期 ...

船运的???

作者: 游兵 时间: 28-11-2014 12:08

circleyue 发表于 28-11-2014 10:43
铁矿没到底呢，很多中小矿还在坚持，大矿拼命挖，价格会不断降。
等到关得差不多了，就到底了。
或大胆预 ...

说的好........要是FMG都倒了,那BHP和RIO都接近成本线了,那几乎就是底部!

作者: 8080 时间: 28-11-2014 18:54
本帖最后由 8080 于 28-11-2014 20:07 编辑

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 03:33
Jobs in doubt in Koolan collapse

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25627312/jobs-in-doubt-in-k ...

实际上包括不在矿区FO在家的，和在珀斯办公室的，其他矿区的，可能有上千个家庭会受到影响。他们的股票停牌到今天还没有开盘。
他们隔壁的Cookatoo几个月前就出问题了。
个人估计很多小矿会很惨。
石油价格个人认为是因为中俄签了4万亿大单。又中了中国买啥啥涨，中国不买就掉。
再加中国深入反腐，估计内奸小了和收敛了。再注意中国和美国签的减排协议，个人估计铁矿石和钢铁产业是在中国现在和未来是夕阳产业
冬天终于来了，这个冬天会很冷，这个冬天不会短。

作者: mzhu4 时间: 28-11-2014 22:09
在矿上的人看来不少啊

作者: 8080 时间: 28-11-2014 22:49
本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 00:25 编辑

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 19:54
实际上包括不在矿区FO在家的，和在珀斯办公室的，其他矿区的，可能有上千个家庭会受到影响。他们的股票 ...

现在直接裁200多个，这估计是固定员工，没包括临时工，服务的，合同工，合约工，承包商。

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014- ... n-200-staff/5926986

Iron ore miner Mt Gibson stands down more than 200 staff in WA's Kimberley

More than 200 staff have been stood down without pay at Mt Gibson's iron ore mine in Western Australia's Kimberley.

Work at the Koolan Island mine, off the coast north of Derby, was suspended earlier this week after a sea wall slumped, flooding the main pit.

Mt Gibson CEO Jim Beyer said it was a disappointing but unavoidable move.

"We had allocated our workforce to other activities around the island while we were working to basically re-stabilise and reinstate an effective sea wall," he said.

"Unfortunately the failure has made it clear that for at least some period of time, we are not going to have sufficient work to keep our workforce employed."

The mine employs 350 people, two thirds of whom will be sent home over the weekend.

Employees with accrued leave have been told they can use it if they wish.

Mr Beyer said the remaining staff would stay on the island to carry out maintenance jobs and earthmoving.

"We have a total of 360 people who work at Koolan Island and approximately two thirds of those are in the process of being stood down now, and there's another third that we will keep that are doing some critical activity," he said.

It comes as iron ore prices hover around five year lows of about $US70 a tonne, shrinking the profits of miners and squeezing their margins.

The iron ore price has slumped almost 50 per cent this year on the back of weaker demand from China and an oversupply in the market.

Australia's big miners have been accused of flooding the market in a bid to knock out higher cost Chinese producers, but it was also eroding the bottom-line of smaller miners.

Mr Beyer said the iron ore price and its future outlook would weigh on it decision to restart operations.

"When we look to make the decision on the financials on the re-start we will be taking into account today's iron ore price but also more the point we will also be taking into account what we see as being the outlook for iron ore," he said.

Bell Potter Securities broker Giuliano Sala Tenna said the tough market conditions would hold the company back.

"Mount Gibson may just take their time particularly coming into the Christmas, New Year period," he said.

"It may not be a great motivation for them to speed up the process to re-start mining operations, particularly when the iron ore price is so weak at the moment."

He remained confident operations would resume at some point, given the high quality of the mine.

"That's their flagship mine site there, so I'd be surprised if they didn't mine again from Koolan Island," he said.

"I think it will be resolved, I think it's a mine site that's known to experience these sorts of set backs, it's obviously disappointing, it's obviously come at a bad time for them."

Mr Beyer said the company was now assessing how much it would cost to repair the damage.

"We're still assessing our options to return an effective sea wall and how long that might take, and as we get some more clarity on the over the next week or so, then we can start to make some clearer decisions on the workforce in particular," he said.

The company's shares will remain in a trading halt for the next week until it makes an announcement on the project's future.

作者: 8080 时间: 28-11-2014 23:36
裁员是没有任何佂兆

作者: 8080 时间: 28-11-2014 23:38
本帖最后由 8080 于 5-12-2014 18:26 编辑

裁员200多(2/3)。腥风惨雨，没有任何缓冲和征兆
其实我更倾向于认为整个Koolan岛的矿场会关停。因为花大本钱和长时间修好挡水墙，排完水后，产矿石出来后是亏而不是赚钱。
海平面下一百来米，差不多三峡的贮水高度。
估计某些地质工程师是害人精。成千个家庭，里面很多人都是很出色的专家，都是我的好朋友。

作者: 8080 时间: 29-11-2014 00:19
本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 01:36 编辑

From: http://www.businessinsider.com.a ... n-ore-mines-2014-11

REPORT: Fortescue Is Considering Shutting One Of Its Iron Ore Mines

There is a report today from Standard Bank’s commodities analyst Melinda Moore that iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group is considering closing its Cloudbreak operation in Western Australia.

In the bank’s commodities note Moore said:

“FMG is rumoured to be (FINALLY) considering reducing its output back to 120 million tonnes from as high as 180mt annualised in some shipment months this year, primarily by closing its higher cost Cloudbreak (40mtpa) mine, focusing on margins rather than volumes – as all miners should now be doing!
“This could reduce the miner’s breakeven price on a China CFR basis from $71/t to below $65/t (savings on costs/moisture) and also assist in significantly reducing market supplies.”

Fortescue has denied the rumour using Twitter to comment.

Cloudbreak was Fortescue’s first mine and is part of the company’s Chichester Hub in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. First ore was shipped from the operation in May 2008 and it currently processes 40 million tonnes a year.

The iron ore price this year has fallen from above $100 a tonne to $68.41 a tonne. The drop is squeezing the margins of all producers – especially the higher cost miners like Fortescue, Atlas Iron and BC Iron.

During the mining investment boom iron ore tonnes increased as companies brought on new supply to take advantage of Chinese demand.

“The four majors alone have contributed 164mt in additional supplies over the past year,” Moore said. “We can also count an additional 25-30mt from the ‘little league’.”

Market forces will eventually weed out higher cost producers and excess supply will right itself as operations scale back tonnes or shut. Fortescue remains exposed to iron ore price fluctuations because of its pure-play status – it’s shares are down about 50% for the year to $2.86 a piece.

“Effectively the market remains oversupplied still by 200mt right now, explaining the current ‘free-fall’,” Moore said.

In another sign that iron ore miners are gearing up to deal with lower commodity prices, Rio Tinto, which is one of the lower cost producers, today deferred making a $1 billion investment decision on its new Silvergrass iron ore mine until the third quarter of 2015 at the earliest.

However, Rio said it will continue to boost production to 330 million tonnes in 2015 and 350 million tonnes by 2017. Additional tonnes will come from existing operations and productivity increases.

作者: 8080 时间: 29-11-2014 00:23
本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 01:34 编辑

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20 ... ce-outlook-cut.html

Spending Cuts

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG) halved capital expenditure to $650 million in the year through June 2015 from its previous budget of $1.3 billion, joining miners including Rio and BHP in cutting spending. The company’s outlook for shipments for the year is unchanged at 155 million to 160 million tons, the world’s fourth-biggest exporter said today.

Rio, the second-biggest miner, has deferred plans to approve a new $1 billion Australian iron ore mine and lowered its 2014 expenditure estimate. BHP, the largest mining company, has announced that capital outlays will drop to $13 billion in fiscal 2016, down more than 40 percent from 2012.

Ore will drop into the $50s in the third quarter of 2015 and average $65 for the year as a whole, Citigroup Inc. said in a Nov. 11 report which cut price forecasts. The bear market still has a way to go, according to analyst Ivan Szpakowski.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jasmine Ng in Singapore at jng299@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net Thomas Kutty Abraham

作者: 8080 时间: 29-11-2014 00:51
本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 01:54 编辑

今日不知明日亊，屋漏偏逢连夜雨，存好余粮好过冬

作者: civil3d 时间: 29-11-2014 14:12
裁员完毕会接着招更便宜的廉价劳动力。。。。。都不过时资本家的伎俩罢了

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 30-11-2014 23:09
出来混, 终归是要还的. 矿业好的时候乐不思蜀, 从来没有想到扶持一些非矿业行业; 现在矿业趴下了, 制造业撤退, 除了农牧业还有什么可以蹦跶?

作者: starrry 时间: 1-12-2014 18:03
想办法跳到LNG，这个是目前澳洲最健康的矿业了吧？
LNG算矿吗，呵呵

作者: circleyue 时间: 1-12-2014 20:16

starrry 发表于 1-12-2014 19:03
想办法跳到LNG，这个是目前澳洲最健康的矿业了吧？
LNG算矿吗，呵呵

LNG是下一个重灾区，gas的定价和油价挂钩的，看看石油跌得成啥样子就知道天然气日子不好过

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS LIMITED （简称LNG）这个公司今天股票大跌22%

澳洲矿业完了，煤死了，铁矿废了，天然气造玩马上亏钱。

这次真的完了

作者: starrry 时间: 1-12-2014 20:30
看来只有打仗才能救澳洲了，那个啥，巴尔干，中东，非洲谁给点个火
（看个玩笑，打仗毕竟吃亏老百姓）

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 2-12-2014 01:12
澳洲的地理位置看来真的成为限制发展的绊脚石. 本土市场和工业规模太小, 发展实体经济需要的产业链基本不存在, 也很难和周边的东南亚国家形成经济互补. (本身澳洲人内心也很排斥亚洲, 尽管ZF一直提亚洲世纪, 澳洲从上至下都把自己当成一个欧洲国家看待.)

发展农业自然气候条件又不成熟, 和国土人口差不多的加拿大相比, 大部分地区气候过于干燥, 严重缺水, 而且土地贫瘠, 不像加拿大有大片草原黑土地. 所以也只有依赖矿业和畜牧业.

发展高科技离不开发达的工农业基础. 何况澳洲继承了英国的传统, 重文轻理. 高额的税负又把Startups全逼到海外去了.

澳洲后面路在何方?

作者: 游兵 时间: 2-12-2014 02:14

eagerbeaver 发表于 2-12-2014 02:12
澳洲的地理位置看来真的成为限制发展的绊脚石. 本土市场和工业规模太小, 发展实体经济需要的产业链基本不存 ...

无需太过惊慌，08年那波至今不过6年而已，双重大底的第二次回探，这波过后就是以十年计的上升主浪！

大家该干嘛就干嘛，无非就是年薪十来万的工人现在只能找几万元的活干呗，有啥了不起的？反正对偶这种在办公室磨洋工的人没啥影响，矿涨上天我是哪个钱，矿跌破底我也不会减工资．．．．．．．

作者: 牧马人 时间: 2-12-2014 09:02
十年的上升浪会来，不过是要等到几年之后。跟08年不同，这个冬天会很漫长……

作者: sieben 时间: 2-12-2014 13:16

牧马人发表于 2-12-2014 10:02
十年的上升浪会来，不过是要等到几年之后。跟08年不同，这个冬天会很漫长……

这个冬天会很冷，LNG目前的状况非常悲观，而且是全球性质的。不过资源类的市场需求长远是增长的，LNG的开采点的降速会很快，所以和打星际一样的，抢地盘开新矿是迟早的事情。这是行业内搞投资贷款风险评估的哥们给的观点，供大家参考。

作者: 牧马人 时间: 2-12-2014 13:29

sieben 发表于 2-12-2014 14:16
这个冬天会很冷，LNG目前的状况非常悲观，而且是全球性质的。不过资源类的市场需求长远是增长的，LNG的开 ...

强势美元的周期才刚刚开始而已，美元走强资源下跌，也就是资源的熊市也才刚刚开始。未来几年，从能源到原材料，资源市场会一片惨淡，包括铁矿，包括LNG，也包括西澳的很多其他矿业都会无例外的集体入冬。

什么时候美元的牛市结束了，资源的春天就回来了，那时候又是大量美元涌入新型国家进行投资开发的周期，美元贬值加上对原材料的需求双重刺激，那时才是资源王者归来的时期。

作者: 8080 时间: 5-12-2014 17:27

8080 发表于 29-11-2014 00:38
裁员200多(2/3)。腥风惨雨，没有任何缓冲和征兆
其实我更倾向于认为整个Koolan岛的矿场会关停。因为花大本 ...

整个Koolan岛的矿场关停

Hundreds of jobs lost as Mount Gibson mothballs flooded Koolan Island mine
From: http://www.watoday.com.au/busine ... 0141205-120y5y.html

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 6-12-2014 23:30

游兵发表于 2-12-2014 03:14
无需太过惊慌，08年那波至今不过6年而已，双重大底的第二次回探，这波过后就是以十年计的上升主浪！

...

矿业今后还是有回探的机会. 中国又开始启动大规模基础设施建设了. 所以我个人还是看好Perth这个城市了.

问题是澳洲除了挖矿今后还有没有其他经济增长点? 整个国家不可能只以来于矿业. 这样国际市场一有风吹草动澳洲立刻打喷嚏.

作者: 8080 时间: 6-12-2014 23:41

8080 发表于 5-12-2014 18:27
整个Koolan岛的矿场关停

Hundreds of jobs lost as Mount Gibson mothballs flooded Koolan Island mi ...

我估计他们会关掉他们真的就关掉了。
其实，作为老板，他们应该算一下是关了赔钱多还是继续开釆哪个新小矿赔钱多。另一方面探矿看是否能找到海平面以上的新的高品位矿，再作进一步决定。
哪个淹水的主矿暂时肯定是没必要花钱了。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-12-2014 19:35
本帖最后由 8080 于 7-12-2014 21:24 编辑

FROM: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news ... i5thm-1227147179740

Jobs loss summit ‘urgent’ for WA, says union boss Steve McCartney

UNIONS representing 75,000 WA workers have called for an “urgent” jobs summit amid fears our economy is “driving off a cliff”.

Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union state secretary Steve McCartney said the hundreds of jobs shed in the past few months by resources companies could be dwarfed by the bloodletting to come in the next two years.

“Both the Gorgon LNG project and Roy Hill iron ore mine will complete construction next year – leaving 10,000 construction workers looking for new jobs.

“With the Wheatstone LNG project set to be completed in 2016, another 6000 construction jobs will go.”

About 200 miners were let go this week by Mount Gibson Iron. And the iron ore price slump forced Atlas Iron to announce on Thursday it would shed about 80 employees.

Mr McCartney said 1300 jobs had been lost in the manufacturing industry alone in the past 12 months.

The Barnett Government is also looking for 1500 voluntary redundancies in the public sector as part of cost-cutting.

Mr McCartney said an urgent summit of political, business and union leaders to develop a jobs plan was critical.

Other high-profile union leaders have supported his call.

United Voice state secretary Carolyn Smith said that her members were facing “hundreds of redundancies” in schools, hospitals and the Water Corporation.

Electrical Trades Union state secretary Les McLaughlan said a “priority” should be “the rorting of the 457 visa system by employers”, an issue also highlighted by Maritime Union of Australia state secretary Christy Cain.

The Australian Services Union, the Health Services Union and the State School Teachers’ Union have also backed a jobs summit.

Premier Colin Barnett said the “fundamentals” in WA were still strong despite a weakening labour market.

“It’s important to note that the State Government’s city-based projects, such as Perth Stadium, the Perth City Link, the Perth Children’s Hospital (and) Elizabeth Quay will provide employment for more than 26,000 West Australians, including people in hundreds of small to medium WA businesses,” he said.

Originally published as Jobs loss summit ‘urgent’ for WA

作者: samchen 时间: 8-12-2014 01:29

8080 发表于 7-12-2014 20:35
FROM: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/jobs-loss-summit-urgent-for-wa-says-union-boss-steve ...

8080，不要夸大危机嘛！

作者: 游兵 时间: 8-12-2014 10:46

地价要涨了.房价要跌了...............

作者: 8080 时间: 8-12-2014 16:34
本帖最后由 8080 于 8-12-2014 18:08 编辑

samchen 发表于 8-12-2014 02:29
8080，不要夸大危机嘛！

不是我夸大危机，我只是引述工会的担忧。
但是，千万别低估工会的能耐。
好像有个新闻说澳洲政府已经把预算案的铁矿石预估平均价格调整到大约60美金每吨了。
两年前谢国忠认为铁矿石价格50-60美金是应该的骂他还情有可原。但是如果现在还看不清形势那真是无法可说了。
我暂时还没看到中国第三次大炼钢铁的诱因，倒是看到低端炼钢厂对环境造成的严重深远的影响是刻不容缓了。
油，气，LNG等清洁能愿：其一，俄中4万亿合同，其二，沙特中国的合同，其三，伊朗和美国的核谈判及可能的制裁解除对中国在伊朗油气项目的潜在起动，其四，美国的页岩油气，其五，中国南海的大开发。所以.......

作者: samchen 时间: 9-12-2014 18:53

8080 发表于 8-12-2014 17:34
不是我夸大危机，我只是引述工会的担忧。
但是，千万别低估工会的能耐。
好像有个新闻说澳洲政府已经 ...

80哥我偶像.
谈谈对澳洲油气行业的预测?会是下一个矿业吗?

作者: civil3d 时间: 9-12-2014 19:07
完蛋了，大家还是该干嘛干嘛去吧。。。哎

作者: 8080 时间: 10-12-2014 00:09
本帖最后由 8080 于 10-12-2014 02:29 编辑

samchen 发表于 9-12-2014 19:53
80哥我偶像.
谈谈对澳洲油气行业的预测?会是下一个矿业吗?

偶像是不敢当，我只是常看新闻，从新闻里看新闻而已。
几年前就有新闻讲美国页岩气建设项目是澳洲项目的十倍，所以今天油价下跌我一点没感到意外。反倒是我从当时开始呼吁要预防的可能。
至少从现在的形势看，有朝这个趋势发展的很大可能。
对西澳和澳洲来说：铁矿石和石油掉得这么快，这么多，完全有可能把西澳和澳洲从double boom 拖到double drop.
所以现阶段千万别盲目乐观。
未来澳洲农牧业应该不会跑输大市，公寓项目要在悉尼中心和次中心以外的澳洲地区大成功个人真的没多大把握，个人认为经济活动中心好像在往新兴国家踏实的转移。

作者: circleyue 时间: 10-12-2014 17:37
现在首当其冲的是铁矿，煤矿，加上石油和明年将要量产的天然气，这些其实看股票的猛跌就可以判断。
后续效应才是最可怕的。
据我估计明年澳洲进入真正意义的衰退，政府降息，澳币下挫，资本外逃。
最不幸的是澳洲很可能失去AAA评级。那么融资成本增加，降息效应抵消。
最后，殃及澳洲最后的防线。。。。。。。。银行和房地产。。。。。。

Worst recession since 1990s is waiting for us and this time we have no ammunitions to fight back.

非常希望判断错了，不过已经研究了一阵子了，越看越没希望。

作者: retirement 时间: 10-12-2014 17:53
先把钱换成美元，明年真暴跌了回来抄底

作者: vvvbu62 时间: 10-12-2014 17:59
提示: 该帖被管理员或版主屏蔽

作者: samchen 时间: 11-12-2014 12:42

circleyue 发表于 10-12-2014 18:37
现在首当其冲的是铁矿，煤矿，加上石油和明年将要量产的天然气，这些其实看股票的猛跌就可以判断。
后续效 ...

circleyue同学，怎么这么悲观！

作者: 牧马人 时间: 11-12-2014 13:57

circleyue 发表于 10-12-2014 18:37
现在首当其冲的是铁矿，煤矿，加上石油和明年将要量产的天然气，这些其实看股票的猛跌就可以判断。
后续效 ...

认同对矿业的判断，不过农业应该可以一定程度上弥补矿业衰退造成的影响吧，至于弥补多少就难说，但总和肯定还是负的。我也看了一些趋势研究的东西，农产品应该是新周期里唯一逆市上涨的大宗商品，政府拼命推FTA，就是在做准备。

作者: xinyuebj 时间: 11-12-2014 16:39
经济真有这么坏？我周围的普通西人好几个都不到60岁就退休，挺好的职业就那么放弃了，不干了。

他们就怎么一点也不担心经济要不好了呢？该贷款的贷款，那么多的贷款消费还比我大，我总是在这儿看你们的评论，很小心得花钱。

难道西人都很迟钝吗？？？

作者: circleyue 时间: 11-12-2014 19:38

samchen 发表于 11-12-2014 13:42
circleyue同学，怎么这么悲观！

其实对总体的悲观，并不是指每个行业每个公司都不行。
做好自己的工作，保持警惕，不断学习，谨慎投资。我们广大华人肯定不是第一个倒下的。
大家只要做好准备，往往坏事轮不到你

作者: circleyue 时间: 11-12-2014 19:56

牧马人发表于 11-12-2014 14:57
认同对矿业的判断，不过农业应该可以一定程度上弥补矿业衰退造成的影响吧，至于弥补多少就难说，但总和肯 ...

看好农业，绝对是个增长点。会弥补一点。
不过经济价值和矿业不可比，所雇用的人也不可比。还有一个大问题，澳洲缺水，国外需求大不过出口量有限。所以农业往往要看天吃饭。

其实政府可以做得不多了。弹药库里只有利息这把双刃剑了。

作者: circleyue 时间: 11-12-2014 20:03

xinyuebj 发表于 11-12-2014 17:39
经济真有这么坏？我周围的普通西人好几个都不到60岁就退休，挺好的职业就那么放弃了，不干了。

他们就 ...

小心使得万年船

万一，我说万一，这几个周围的西人哪一天没有收入（股票，房租等等）来还贷款了，那他们怎么办？快60了再出去找工？
临退休了债务应该越少越好。
there is only one way to go broke................too much debt.

作者: circleyue 时间: 11-12-2014 20:05

retirement 发表于 10-12-2014 18:53
先把钱换成美元，明年真暴跌了回来抄底

早应该换了，不过估计还要跌

作者: 牧马人 时间: 11-12-2014 20:33

xinyuebj 发表于 11-12-2014 17:39
经济真有这么坏？我周围的普通西人好几个都不到60岁就退休，挺好的职业就那么放弃了，不干了。

他们就 ...

不是西人迟钝还是华人迟钝，哪个族裔里都有迟钝的。看看美国次贷危机时候多少破产的。

作者: 牧马人 时间: 11-12-2014 20:37

circleyue 发表于 11-12-2014 20:56
看好农业，绝对是个增长点。会弥补一点。
不过经济价值和矿业不可比，所雇用的人也不可比。还有一个大问 ...

欧洲都负利率了也就是那么回事儿，澳洲玩利息也没啥倒腾的，而美国却在等着加息，大势一来啥都挡不住，不服不行啊。

作者: bluceyu 时间: 12-12-2014 00:43
老欧洲早就不行了，苟延残喘而已，未来就看亚洲和美国了

作者: angelar8 时间: 12-12-2014 01:43
提示: 作者被禁止或删除, 无法发言

circleyue 发表于 1-12-2014 21:16
LNG是下一个重灾区，gas的定价和油价挂钩的，看看石油跌得成啥样子就知道天然气日子不好过
LIQUEFIED ...

说的很惨啊，那赶紧回国待着比较安全啊

作者: angelar8 时间: 12-12-2014 01:47
提示: 作者被禁止或删除, 无法发言 的确在澳洲看不到什么发展和未来的，一个死气沉沉的地方。经济不行，工作不稳定，对那些还一门心思要移民的人，真不理解。

作者: 牧马人 时间: 12-12-2014 09:25

angelar8 发表于 12-12-2014 02:43
说的很惨啊，那赶紧回国待着比较安全啊

明年晚些时候再来看你这句话吧

作者: circleyue 时间: 12-12-2014 09:58

angelar8 发表于 12-12-2014 02:43
说的很惨啊，那赶紧回国待着比较安全啊

澳洲整体不好，不代表个体不好

国内没有吸引我的生活，像我这种家里又没底又没门路的，只能在澳洲自力更生了。
估计会一辈子待这里了。

作者: 牧马人 时间: 12-12-2014 10:32

circleyue 发表于 12-12-2014 10:58
澳洲整体不好，不代表个体不好
国内没有吸引我的生活，像我这种家里又没底又没 ...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/t ... 0141212-125g73.html
这是要关门放狗的节奏啊

作者: circleyue 时间: 12-12-2014 13:18

牧马人发表于 12-12-2014 11:32
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-governor-glenn-stevens-says-australian-dollar-bette ...

汇率0.75还是比较高，澳币是矿业货币，矿业价格狂掉，慢慢的会反映到货币汇率上来。
加上美国复苏，美元强劲，澳洲则慢慢衰退。澳币的下跌之路远未结束。
央行主席其实最担心的是下面这段话：
In some of his toughest comments on record, Mr Stevens hit out at Canberra's failure to "get real" about the budget, warning Australia's AAA rating could be threatened if longer-term tax and spending issues weren't fixed.
Without action, including from Senate crossbenchers, he suggested Australia could within five years find itself forced by international bond markets to adopt more hard-line austerity measures, something that has led to double- and triple-dip recessions in Europe.
“税制改革”和“调整政府支出”是现在最有效的办法，不过个人认为，不管谁在台上都治不好，这是西方社会的顽症，大家伸手拿惯了，没人愿意不拿。不给就哄你下来。
所以，澳洲最后可能要走别人的老路，forced by international bond markets to adopt more hard-line austerity measures, something that has led to double- and triple-dip recessions in Europe.

所以我觉得澳洲应该有一段时间的深度调整，经济学叫 mean reversion

作者: bluceyu 时间: 12-12-2014 14:24
砍福利是可以预见的行为了，没办法，缺钱了，让那些只拿福利的人都出去找工作去就能把整体社会的成本显著降低。

作者: bluceyu 时间: 12-12-2014 14:26
联想到日本鼓励妇女出去工作，不过个人还是不看好日本经济，和中国韩国产业重叠率这么大，没得玩

作者: 牧马人 时间: 12-12-2014 21:38

bluceyu 发表于 12-12-2014 15:26
联想到日本鼓励妇女出去工作，不过个人还是不看好日本经济，和中国韩国产业重叠率这么大，没得玩

中国也好不到哪去，有可能更糟糕，只是三十多年的成长让人都不相信会有危机

作者: samchen 时间: 17-12-2014 00:24

牧马人发表于 12-12-2014 22:38
中国也好不到哪去，有可能更糟糕，只是三十多年的成长让人都不相信会有危机

中国也在缓慢.

作者: civil3d 时间: 17-12-2014 16:44

samchen 发表于 17-12-2014 01:24
中国也在缓慢.

高见，sam兄，你最近还在香港？

作者: civil3d 时间: 17-12-2014 16:51

samchen 发表于 17-12-2014 01:24
中国也在缓慢.

高见，sam兄，你最近还在香港？

作者: bluceyu 时间: 17-12-2014 18:27
这是个比谁差的年代，但可以肯定的是中国不会太差

作者: 牧马人 时间: 17-12-2014 20:48

bluceyu 发表于 17-12-2014 19:27
这是个比谁差的年代，但可以肯定的是中国不会太差

what makes you so sure?

作者: vicpark 时间: 17-12-2014 22:12
我们公司从上周五开始第一轮风暴，东部加PERTH这边一共炒了差不多80人，除了 admin, ar之外中级的经理为多，搞到人心惶惶的。

听说还有第2轮呢，这个圣诞节对很多家庭来说并不快乐。

作者: lowprofile 时间: 17-12-2014 23:55

vicpark 发表于 17-12-2014 20:12
我们公司从上周五开始第一轮风暴，东部加PERTH这边一共炒了差不多80人，除了 admin, ar之外中级的经理为多 ...

什么行业？看来东部就业形势也不乐观啊

作者: vicpark 时间: 18-12-2014 00:10

lowprofile 发表于 18-12-2014 00:55
什么行业？看来东部就业形势也不乐观啊

oil & gas

作者: civil3d 时间: 18-12-2014 07:15

vicpark 发表于 18-12-2014 01:10
oil & gas

著名的油气公司五德赛也开始炒人了。。。。现在是干啥都不顺心阿。。。。

作者: samchen 时间: 18-12-2014 12:31

civil3d 发表于 18-12-2014 08:15
著名的油气公司五德赛也开始炒人了。。。。现在是干啥都不顺心阿。。。。

他们还买进了2个油井的控股权，判断未来石油价格会回升。裁员也是裁那些可有可无的角色，目前不会大动。这个和目前的咨询公司和矿山公司砍得到筋骨是不同的。

作者: samchen 时间: 23-9-2017 17:42
3年多了，回顾这个帖子，看看今天PERTH如何。

作者: yuerui 时间: 25-9-2017 01:27
过去两年是很差但明年会回升已批的新项目有十几个但没有象gorgon 那样的超大项目

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