澳洲央行的政策取向

tigerr123

从RBA官员最近的发言来看.
显然澳央行倾向于升高利率,并维持澳币的高兑换率.
因为这样会有利于
1. 抑制房地产泡沫.
2. 控制国内通胀.
3. 防止整体经济过热.

这样的政策取向可能导致的后果就是:
澳币会维持在高位.
房地产会持续低迷.

所以期待澳币下跌的朋友们可能会有点失望. 因为澳币下跌的前提条件就是商品市场暴跌. 目前看来希望不大.
澳央行官员甚至明确说: My guess is in trend terms the exchange rate will continue to rise.

RBA expects mining industry to double
Updated: 09:45, Wednesday February 24, 2010
RBA expects mining industry to double

The RBA expects the size of the mining industry to double over the next few years in an effort to satisfy Asia's vast appetite for energy and resources.

RBA deputy governor Ric Battellino said the mining sector would expand over the next few years to be twice as big as in the previous boom that ended with the global financial crisis.

'I don't think it's unreasonable to expect mining investment to rise to six per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) over the next few years,' Mr Battellino told the Sydney Institute in a question and answer session on Tuesday.

That would be about twice as high as it was up to in the previous boom. It's a very big boom.'

Mr Battellino said the RBA had done a lot of work through its representative office in Western Australia to assess the north west gas fields.

'I have to say it's a very big story,' he said.

Mr Battellino had earlier delivered a speech to the institute, saying Australia is experiencing a surge in mining driven by commodities demand from China and India that could last more than 15 years.

Mr Battellino said the Australian dollar would continue to strengthen on the back of the mining boom.

'Fundamentally, if the scenario works out the way people think, with all this investment, particularly in the gas industries, there's going to be a huge demand for investment in Australia and a huge demand on resources which can only be accommodated by a higher exchange rate,' Mr Battellino said.

'My guess is in trend terms the exchange rate will continue to rise.'

He also said inflation was still coming down.

'We had that period from the very start of 2005 when inflation started to pick up and by 2007, 2008 inflation pressures here were hitting.

'Nowhere near to the standards we got during the previous mining boom, at that stage we were already into double digits.'

Mr Battellino said the mining booms had a very powerful effect on the economy as there would not be a lot of room for consumer spending or house building during the next mining boom.

'That's the reality of the situation. There's only so much activity that can take place and if we want to have all this mining investment and mining output, which is happening, then basically the other part of the economy, for the moment will have to be restrained somehow,' Mr Battellino said.

'You can't do all these things simultaneously.'

Asked how the restraint would be carried out Mr Battellino said 'through interest rate policy'.