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标题: 移民局今天的第2个ISSUES和新FAQ [打印本页]

作者: ydbzw 时间: 4-9-2009 18:36
标题: 移民局今天的第2个ISSUES和新FAQ
太长了，等看完再说。

Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
1
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills
through the General Skilled Migration
program
Review of the Migration Occupations in
Demand List
Issues Paper No. 2, September 2009
Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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Contents page
List of acronyms....................................................................................................................3
Summary ..............................................................................................................................4
Background..........................................................................................................................5
Introduction ...........................................................................................................................7
Australia’s future skill needs............................................................................................... 8
The role of the Future Skills List in the GSM visa program.................................................10
Option A – No Future Skills List in the GSM process ....................................................... 10
Option B – Future Skills List as component of GSM Points Test...................................... 11
Option C - Future Skills List replaces the CSL as a prioritisation mechanism .................. 12
Would a Future Skills List be solely focused on occupation?........................................... 12
Establishing and revising a Future Skills List ......................................................................14
Establishing a list.............................................................................................................. 14
What evidence would inform the new list? ....................................................................... 15
Implementation ...................................................................................................................18
Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................19
Attachment A What is the Migration Occupations in Demand List?................................20
Attachment B Issues for consultation .............................................................................21
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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List of acronyms
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics
ANZSCO Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations
CSL Critical Skills List
DEEWR Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations
DIAC Department of Immigration and Citizenship
GSM General Skilled Migration
MODL Migration Occupations in Demand List
SOL Skilled Occupation List
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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Summary
The review of the MODL, being undertaken jointly by the Department of Education,
Employment and Workplace Relations and the Department of Immigration and Citizenship,
is charged with examining the purpose and methodology of the list, to ensure it is helping to
deliver a skilled migration program focused on Australia’s medium to long term skill needs,
and complements domestic skills supply.
The first Issues Paper proposed that MODL be made prospective, target skills of high
economic value and complement domestic skills supply. This second Issues Paper puts
forward options consistent with those principles.
The centrepiece is a proposal to develop a Future Skills List as a targeting mechanism
within the independent skilled migration program. This list would advantage applicants with
high value skills in areas of future need for the Australian economy, through the acquisition
of additional points under the GSM Points Test or by according processing priority. An
alternative position, that no list is required to deliver a high value GSM program, is also
explored.
The paper also discusses how a Future Skills List would be established and reviewed. This
process would be informed by:
􀁹 consistent modeling of demand and supply influences
􀁹 qualitative research undertaken by DEEWR
􀁹 migration program information
􀁹 work of Skills Australia and others;
and considered in the context of broader questions such as:
􀁹 the future needs of the Australian economy;
􀁹 the appropriateness of migration to address particular skill needs;
􀁹 issues in the local labour market including training initiatives.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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Background
The review of the MODL is charged with examining and reporting on:
1. The role and purpose of the MODL in targeting skill needs in relation to the General
Skilled Migration Program to complement the supply of tertiary-qualified1 Australians.
2. A proposal for a new methodology and structure for MODL to meet its intended
purpose, taking account of (i) the medium to longer term needs of the Australian
labour market, (ii) skill supply through domestic tertiary education.
3. The implications for policy and administration of any proposed changes to the MODL
arrangements.
4. The introduction of the ANZSCO into ABS and DEEWR work and the implications and
timing of its introduction into MODL and the CSL.
5. Key dates and time frame for any changes which may result from the review.
To assist stakeholders Attachment A provides an overview of the current role of MODL in
the migration program.
The review is being conducted jointly by DEEWR and DIAC. This Issues Paper was
prepared by officials from both departments, with assistance from Treasury and Professor
Gerald Burke of Skills Australia.
Response to the first Issues Paper
The first Issues Paper covered the following topics:
• background on the MODL
• economic and demographic challenges facing Australia
• need for a new MODL
• proposed principles for a new MODL.
DEEWR and DIAC were pleased to receive responses to the first Issues Paper from a
broad range of stakeholders, including education bodies, assessing authorities, industry
organisations, unions and potential visa applicants. Overwhelming, respondents welcomed
the review and affirmed the need to reconsider the objectives of the MODL and the best
way to achieve those objectives.
Feedback received on the proposed principles for a new MODL indicated strong support for
a co-ordinated response to skills formation that incorporates a forward plan for domestic
training and education, as well as migration. While mindful of the limitations of a
prospective approach, the majority of respondents welcomed this proposed shift in
emphasis.
1 The term tertiary-qualified refers to post-school qualification through higher education and the VET sector
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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Industry bodies in particular, also welcomed the principle that a list not be driven by short
term employment cycles. For example, rather than contract the program in response to the
current economic downturn, several stakeholders flagged the importance of continuing to
facilitate the entry of migrants with skills that will contribute to the government’s planned
infrastructure investment.
Although most respondents agreed in principle with the objective of using a list to target
high value skills, there was much discussion about the most appropriate ways to define
‘high value’. A common theme was that a list should recognise both the economic and
social value of skills. In this vein the use of earnings as a proxy indicator of value was
generally not endorsed.
In addition to responding to the principles put forward, the submissions raised a variety of
issues about the current and future state of MODL and the GSM program. Some of those
matters, including those going to how a prospective list would be established, and how
domestic training and education initiatives would be taken into account, are addressed in
this paper. Others, such as the capacity to include niche industries or occupations without
a specified assessing authority in any future list and whether it is possible or appropriate for
a future list to attempt to target regional and industry specific skills needs, require further
consideration as this Review progresses.
Comments were also received on a range of topics that fall outside the scope of this
Review, such as suggestions about changing the structure of the GSM program to require
applicants to work in their nominated occupation on a temporary visa for a substantial
period of time before being eligible for permanent residence. This feedback has been
passed on to the relevant policy areas of the two Departments.
Second Issues Paper
This paper builds on the principles proposed in the first paper and puts forward options for:
• the role of MODL in the GSM assessment process and
• a new MODL methodology.
Issues that will impact on transitional arrangements are also discussed.
Comments on this Issues Paper are invited using the questions posed at Attachment A.
Responses, and any queries, should be directed to:
Ms Miranda Lauman
Director, MODL Review
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
Email: miranda.lauman@immi.gov.au
Phone: 02 6264 2525
and received no later than Friday, 18 September 2009.
The government will consider the outcomes of the review in October, with an
announcement to follow shortly thereafter.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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Introduction
Australia needs immigrants. Without them, our workforce would begin to shrink from the
second half of the next decade, as retiring baby boomers out-number new entrants to the
labour market. If immigrants are needed to supplement our labour force, it is better that
most of them be skilled.
Skilled migration offers three clear economic benefits:
􀀹 it adds to the number of people of working age (population)
􀀹 it increases the proportion of people in work (participation)
􀀹 GDP per capita is raised (productivity).
Skilled migration ticks all 3Ps. Its greatest contribution, relative to other migrant streams, is
productivity. The higher the quality of immigrants’ skills, the greater the gain in
productivity.
Under the skilled stream, there are two selection stages in the migration process. The
would-be immigrant applies for entry to Australia; we then choose from among them who
we will allow entry. How should we choose? The principle articulated by the FitzGerald
Inquiry over 20 years ago is still sound: “the only responsible way of choosing is on the
basis of factors which are economically and demographically and socially defensible and
which will give us immigrants who can lead a productive and fulfilling life in Australia.”
In 2008-09, 66 900 visa grants were awarded offshore to skilled migrants (primary
applicants). This is a pure measure of the extent to which Australia is importing skills.
Seven out of ten of these grants were sponsored by an employer (or nominated by a State
or Territory Government), either for a permanent or temporary visa.
In these instances the sponsor, not the Government, selects the skilled migrant. Employers
who cannot fill jobs locally can source skilled workers in a global labour market. The
Government sets the rules; so long as these are satisfied, it plays no further part in
selecting the migrant. Sponsoring skilled migrants is the optimal solution for meeting
immediate skill needs and dealing with cyclical capacity constraints, as there is a 1:1
match between the employer’s skill requirements and the immigrant’s desire to settle
quickly into Australia.
The remaining three out of ten grants in 2008-09 went to skilled migrants who were not
sponsored. Australia is comparatively rare in international terms in granting permanent
residence to skilled migrants without a job offer. At present the greatest weight in selection
is given to those nominating occupations in national skills shortage – up to 80 points (up to
60 points for occupation and up to 20 points for a MODL occupation) out of the 120 points
needed to pass. This policy setting is insufficiently differentiated from the sponsored
pathway: if the migrant’s skills are in immediate demand they can be sponsored which,
employers report, is a far more responsive means of meeting their needs.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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As unsponsored migrants are without a job on arrival we need to be confident of their
prospects. That means, on average, they need to have higher value skills than
sponsored migrants. This gives them the necessary insurance they need to compete in
the Australian labour market. At present, many unsponsored skilled migrants who do not
have strong English language skills have difficulty securing skilled work in Australia. This
outcome is undesirable for both the migrant and for the Australian labour market.
The structure of the Points Test, and its interaction with the MODL, currently creates a
number of low hurdles to permanent residence. These distort the pattern of visa
applications and grants and course choice by international students.
The MODL was introduced in 1999 to remedy the situation where someone with skills
needed in the Australian labour market fell just shy of the points needed to be awarded
permanent residence, for example, a highly skilled tradesperson whose age counted
against them. Over time the MODL has come to be seen more as a general instrument for
addressing skill shortages, and was given added weight in the Points Test. For reasons
identified in the first Issues Paper, the MODL is much less effective in addressing skill
shortages than sponsored skilled migration, and contributes to the distortions in the
migration program.
The first Issues Paper proposed that MODL be made prospective, target skills of high
economic value and complement domestic skill supply now and into the future. This second
Issues Paper puts forward options consistent with those principles.
The centrepiece is a proposal to develop a Future Skills List as a targeting mechanism
within the independent skilled migration program. This list would advantage applicants with
high value skills in areas of future need for the Australian economy.
The paper explains how a Future Skills List could be devised and implemented, and a
process to allow for periodic revisions to the list. Among the options put forward is that
there be no list at all, on the grounds that the disadvantages outweigh any advantages.
On balance, there appears to be a benefit to maintaining a list. That being the case, two
options are put forward as to how a Future Skills List would work, one to give additional
points to someone nominating an occupation on the list (as MODL presently works), the
other as a means of prioritising applications (as the CSL presently works). The paper
explores the pros and cons of these two options. To begin with, the paper outlines the
concept of a Future Skills List.
Australia’s future skill needs
In the first Issues Paper a principle was proposed that a list targeting select skills should
aim at skills of high economic value.
There are two ways of approaching the question of value: one by comparing the relative
characteristics of individuals in terms of their contribution to the Australian labour market;
the other by comparing the relative merits of different occupations.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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It is the Points Test which performs the role of assessing the relative potential contribution
of individuals, based on criteria such as education, experience, age and proficiency in
English. For two individuals nominating the same occupation, the one who scores better on
these criteria should be ranked ahead of the other.
For two individuals with the same points, but who nominate under different occupations, the
Government may elect to favour one occupation over another. The MODL is designed to
favour occupations in national skill shortage with good job prospects. An alternative
rationale for favouring some occupations is that they meet Australia’s future skill needs.
In the first Issues Paper we identified a number of challenges facing Australia in the years
to come: getting the Australian economy back onto its long-term growth trajectory, lowering
carbon emissions, and coping with an ageing population.
A Future Skills List provides a strategic means of targeting visa applicants with high
value skills in occupations that will better enable Australia to meet these challenges.
It is a skill supplementation measure. Basing the list on future skill needs brings together
the consideration of domestic education and training needs under the auspices of Skills
Australia with the independent skilled migration program.
For an occupation to be placed on the Future Skills List, four criteria are proposed:
• it meets a strategic government priority;
• it is a highly skilled occupation essential to meeting that priority;
• the occupation is assessed as being one for which there will be strong demand over
the next 3-5 years which is unlikely to be fully met by existing supply mechanisms;
• there are workforce development strategies in place for these skills but migration may
be needed to supplement this in the medium term (3-5 years).
As an illustration, the government is keen to increase the number of maths and science
secondary school teachers, to encourage the shift towards a knowledge-based economy.
Teachers in these fields are generally expected to be in short supply in coming years even
with measures in place designed to encourage more young Australians to pursue this
option.
The Future Skills List is a means of targeting occupational specific skills, not of targeting
generic skills. To get the balance of skills right, this suggests the extent of advantage in the
selection process given to applicants nominating an occupation on the Future Skills List
should be slight.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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The role of the Future Skills List in the GSM visa program
In a General Skilled Migration program focused on selecting applicants with high value
skills, a Future Skills List could assist in targeting applicants best equipped to help address
the medium to long term challenges facing Australia in the labour market and
demographically.
This section of the paper examines three ways to achieve this end, while addressing some
of the key concerns about the impact of MODL under the current arrangements, including:
• the domination of certain MODL occupations in the GSM caseload;
• the inability to include high value 50 point occupations in the list; and
• the perception that a heavily weighted MODL component in the Points Test creates a
low threshold for applicants without delivering results for the economy.
Addressing these fundamental concerns and ensuring any changes adopted in response to
this review support recent measures to improve the integrity of the temporary sponsored
visa program, is critical to meeting the objectives of the skilled migration program.
Option A – No Future Skills List in the GSM process
The first option is not to have an occupational targeting mechanism. This would deliver a
spread of occupations via the GSM process. It recognises the mobility of the modern
workforce and the value of flexible, generic skills, a theme raised by many of the
stakeholders in their response to the first Issues Paper. Specialised skills can continue to
be sourced through the sponsored visa pathways.
Under this option the program would strive to meet future skills needs by facilitating the
entry of those migrants well equipped to adjust to fill emerging jobs, rather than trying to
pinpoint the exact skills employers will require in the future. A recent joint paper by Skills
Australia and the Academy of the Social Sciences, The Labour Market, Skills Demand and
Skills Formation observed:
Changes in industry composition have combined with technological change to
systematically alter the demand for skills. Technological change has been the
dominant influence, allowing for, or even driving, a restructuring of occupations within
industries…More generic and general skills, rather than firm-specific skills, are
required…The overall outcome is a more highly skilled workforce and a more efficient
economy.
By removing additional points for an occupation considered to be in current or future
demand, this option avoids the unintended consequence MODL points have had under the
existing points regime, with the program being filled by applicants with a narrow range of
occupations. It also removes any perverse incentives for international students to pursue
courses which appear to provide ‘easy’ avenues for those seeking permanent skilled
migration. Instead, this model encourages applicants to develop high level skills in the
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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areas that are established to be the prime indicators of success in the labour market –
English language, recognised skills, and sustained work experience.
A further advantage of having no list, is that the basis on which points are allocated or
priority accorded to GSM applicants would not be subject to revision. Prospective
applicants (and other stakeholders) would therefore have more certainty about their
capacity to meet the GSM requirements than under the current system where the
availability of MODL points changes regularly.
The main drawback of this option is that it removes any tools to ensure a positive migration
outcome for applicants who fall ‘just shy’ of the Points Test requirements, but otherwise
possess the skills and qualities that would allow them to make a positive contribution in
Australia. However, in reviewing the remaining Points Test factors and their values in order
to remove MODL points, there is an opportunity to address these settings and ensure they
adequately reflect the objectives of GSM. For example, it may be appropriate to ensure that
any points lost as an applicant ages, are able to be offset by the points gained for
substantial periods of skilled work experience – something that is highly valued by
employers and not readily available amongst younger migrants.
Option B – Future Skills List as component of GSM Points Test
This option draws on the original model for the interaction of MODL and the Points Test,
where applicants with recognised skills in a MODL occupation were awarded 5 points or 10
points where they had a job offer. This meant that this component of the Points Test served
an important role in ensuring applicants who generally had high value attributes but fell just
short of the passmark were able to qualify for a GSM visa where their specific skills were in
demand. However, the points were not worth so much that potential applicants viewed
MODL as the best way to obtain a GSM visa.
Significantly reducing the points value recalibrates the Points Test, putting a greater
emphasis on the importance of strong English language skills and work experience – the
factors that international research consistently identifies as being key indicators of
successful labour market integration. Capacity to quickly obtain meaningful employment is
not only important to realising the policy goals that underpin the skilled migration program,
but it is critical to the migrant’s settlement and self value – following from direct financial
benefits of having a job and the opportunity for social interaction.
Given the focus of GSM on independent, supply driven migration, it may also be
appropriate to remove the additional points currently awarded to an applicant who has a job
offer in Australia in a position closely related to their MODL occupation. The time lags
associated with GSM, that were explored in the first Issues Paper of this review, in relation
to both processing and the time associated with relocation for overseas applications mean
employers looking to secure the services of a new migrant are much better served by the
457 and ENS programs. Removing points for a job offer would also address concerns
about the integrity of current arrangements whereby there is no mechanism to oblige an
employer to make good on a job offer made to a GSM applicant, leaving the system open
to abuse.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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This approach provides government with a tool to target applicants with high value skills
that are not able to be delivered through domestic training or education initiatives. As the
list is revised it also allows the GSM program to respond to emerging economic priorities.
Option C - Future Skills List replaces the CSL as a prioritisation mechanism
This option would have the Future Skills List play the same role as is presently done by the
Critical Skills List; that is, applicants nominating an occupation under the list would have
their application processed ahead of other independent or family sponsored GSM
applications.
There are inherent attractions to this option, but also a number of disadvantages. The
primary advantage is that the first places filled in the GSM would be quarantined for
occupations on the Future Skills List. As they are subject to priority processing these
applications would also be dealt with more quickly, reducing lag times. Other advantages
are transparency and that no distortions are introduced by offering points for occupations
on the Future Skills List.
There are, however, some disadvantages. If the net effect is merely to shuffle the ordering
of the queue, there is no difference between this option and Option A, except in the timing
of processing. At the other extreme, all available places in the independent general skilled
migration program could be taken up by those nominating occupations on the Future Skills
List. To mitigate the risk that a pipeline of applications develops that are eligible for GSM,
but are continually displaced by priority applications on the Future Skills List consideration
could be given to revising the visa eligibility requirements, to reduce the number of
applicants able to lodge a GSM application who are not on the list. However this would not
support the delivery of a balanced program – one with a mix of specialised and general
skills.
This option would also mean placing applicants with very high scores in the Points Test
behind those with lower scores whose nominated occupation is on the Future Skills List. An
alternative to this model would be to prioritise applications that meet the needs of the
Future Skills List and process them in order of their Points Test mark. This would mean that
unlike the current model where all applicants who meet the pass mark have equal standing,
future applicants would derive benefit from exceeding the pass mark. This approach shifts
the applicant’s focus from meeting threshold standards to excelling in as many factors as
possible.
Would a Future Skills List be solely focused on occupation?
In its current construction the MODL is a list of occupations. To satisfy the requirements of
the list an applicant needs only to have a suitable skills assessment in an occupation on the
list. The CSL, on the other hand, has the capacity to target a subset of applicants within an
occupational category, for example Accountants must also have IELTS 7 to benefit from
the CSL.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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The capacity to target, where appropriate, a subset of applicants with skills or experience
over and above the level required to obtain a suitable skills assessment offers a number of
benefits over a list of occupations:
i) it allows for the inclusion in a Future Skills List of occupations that do not have a
specialised skills assessing authority by establishing a minimum level qualification
including the relevant field of study to qualify for points. For example, Urban and
Regional Planners are included in the New Zealand Long Term Skills Shortage List
with a minimum qualification of a Bachelors degree (or higher) in environmental or
resource planning. This would mean that in addition to having a suitable skills
assessment, an applicant would need to demonstrate, as part of their migration
application, that they have a qualification in the requisite field for the listed occupation.
ii) introducing, where appropriate, a skilled employment experience, English language
and/or qualification requirement before an applicant is eligible for points, allows the
Future Skills List to better target those applicants who will be attractive to employers
and therefore have better job and settlement prospects. A work experience
requirement has the added benefit being more responsive to domestic training flows.
For example, it may be identified that a future skills need is on target to be partially but
not completely addressed by domestic training. Including that occupation on a Future
Skills List, with an additional requirement of at least three years work experience
would better ensure the labour market has access to a mixture a new graduates and
experienced practitioners.
Determinations on when it is appropriate for additional factors to be included and what they
should be could be made in consultation with assessing authorities, industry groups or
based on employer feedback. It is also important to note that any approach that put greater
emphasis on skilled work experience or overseas qualifications would need to be supported
by appropriate visa processing resources to allow for the veracity of evidence to be tested
and suspected incidents of fraud to be investigated.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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Establishing and revising a Future Skills List
Stakeholders universally endorsed the principle that any list be underpinned by a strong
evidence base and a robust and transparent methodology. However data should not be
considered in isolation if the list is also to take account of other migration arrangements and
complement domestic skills supply, principles which were also strongly supported in the
feedback received on the first Issues Paper. Instead, the results of the model/analysis or
statistical data should be considered against broader questions such as the future needs of
the Australian economy, the appropriateness of migration to address particular skill needs,
issues in the local labour market, training initiatives and concentrations of numbers arriving
through the GSM in particular occupations.
Establishing a list
The Future Skills List needs to be consistent with the principles outlined in the first Issues
Paper, which were broadly supported by stakeholders.
􀁹 The skills are of high economic value – the nominated occupation meets a strategic
Australian government priority and is a specialised occupation essential to meeting
that priority.
􀁹 The skills complement domestic supply and maximize skill utilization – based on
DEEWR and DIAC research and advice from Skills Australia.
􀁹 The list is prospective – based on DEEWR research on future employment growth and
likely supply.
􀁹 The list is not driven by short term employment cycles, and is instead based on
medium to long-term skill needs.
􀁹 It is proposed that the list be updated on a periodic basis, perhaps annually, to strike
the right balance between stability and flexibility.
􀁹 The list should take account of other migration pathways – Options B and C cover this
principle.
􀁹 The methodology underpinning the list is transparent and evidence based – a public
report with advice to the Minister for Immigration on recommended changes to the
Future Skills List.
Such an approach could be taken forward through existing Departmental arrangements,
through close liaison with Skills Australia or through the establishment of a committee/body
to provide annual advice on occupations for a new list. This committee would work within
parameters set through this review and consider a range of occupational data outlined
below to make recommendations rather than relying on a set statistical model delivering
definitive outcomes. The body could also, based on issues such as the spread of visa
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
15
grants across occupations and domestic training rates, determine whether occupational
caps could be appropriate, although legislative changes may be necessary for this.
What evidence would inform the new list?
Decisions about the composition of a new list would be guided by the principles established
in the first Issues Paper and informed by:
1. consistent modeling of demand and supply influences
2. qualitative research undertaken by DEEWR
3. migration program information
4. work of Skills Australia and others.
1. Modeling of demand and supply influences
The List should take account of the prospective labour market, including the future demand
for and supply of labour for occupations. This prospective information needs to be based
on consistent modeling of demand and supply influences.
The approach that could be followed is outlined below. This methodology is not about
forecasting skill shortages. In Australia there is information about current skill shortages,
but these shortfalls are not quantified. It would be even more difficult to attempt to quantify
future skill shortages, especially in the present uncertain labour market. Such forecasts
would require accurate projections of both supply and demand at the occupation level.
What is appropriate is to model the future demand and supply for skills and identify those
occupations in which demand will be strong over the next five years and where current
supply mechanisms are unlikely to meet demand.
Future industry employment growth
Industries are the drivers of the future demand for skills. The future demand for an
occupation is influenced by two key factors: the growth of the industries that employ
workers in that occupation, and changes in the occupational mix (an occupation’s share of
employment in industries).
DEEWR produces annual updates of employment projections for around 200 industries.
These projections are based on economic forecasting models, recent employment trends
and industry and occupation developments. The DEEWR employment projections are the
average annual growth rate in the next five years (to 2013-14). The latest projections have
taken the impact of the Global Recession into account, and for total employment reflect the
Treasury out-year forecasts. Employment growth across all industries is expected to be
lower in the next five years than in recent years.
Occupational employment projections
Modeling of the future demand for occupations needs to take account of the lags in the
migration process. Consequently, employment projections need to look out at least three
years, with five years the preferred time frame. Projections need to be monitored and
reviewed on a systematic basis.
Occupational employment projections are available from economic forecasting
organisations, including Access Economics and the Centre of Policy Studies. DEEWR
prepares annual updates of employment projections over the next five years for around 350
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
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occupations. As for the industry projections these are presented as annual average growth
in the next five years (currently to 2013-14).
Demand for new workers
The core issue is identifying the future demand for new workers for occupations. Most of
this demand comes from workers leaving occupations, for example moving to other
occupations, retiring or shifting to outside the labour force, more than employment growth.
The supply of newly qualified workers and migration are the main ways to meet this
demand for new workers, although workers can be attracted from other occupations or from
outside the labour force.
Robust modeling of the demand for new workers is the pivot of the shift to prospective
labour market information for MODL. The demand for new workers can be viewed as
having three components, as below:
Future Demand for new workers (in an occupation)
A. Employment Growth (new jobs) + B. Retirement Rate (number of retiring
workers) + C. Net Occupational Shift (non retirement flows into and out of the
occupation)
There are modeling approaches to provide these estimates, although these would need to
be examined and improved. The estimates would, like employment, need to be forwardlooking
- expected retirements and occupational flows in the next five years. As noted
above, new occupational demand from replacement needs are larger than employment
growth for most occupations. The separate retirement component has the benefit of
identifying the impact of workforce ageing, an influence that varies across occupations.
Supply of skills
Modeling the future supply of skills is complex. To do this properly would require not only
forecasts of completions from higher education and VET, but also information on how
workers use their qualifications: the number who move into employment, how many work in
the occupation for which they are qualified, how qualifications are used through time and
movement of workers between occupations. In addition, information on migration trends
and how these migrants use their qualifications influences the supply of skills.
Some occupations, such as Doctors, Nurses and Actuaries are more occupation specific
and could be given a stronger focus in any modeling of the supply of skills.
While it may not be feasible to quantitatively model the supply of skills for occupations,
robust projections of the demand for new workers can assist in examining supply needs
and potential gaps. Supply trends, such as projected education completions, can be
viewed in the light of these demand projections.
Complexities and the way forward
The Global Recession has highlighted how quickly labour markets, and the balance of
supply and demand for occupations, can change and reshape the future demand for skills.
Modeling approaches need to be able to respond to emerging labour market changes, and
facilitate the examination of alternative views of the future. There are some research gaps,
and these need to be identified and addressed.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
17
In summary, the core of prospective information on the demand for skills could be based on
the demand for new workers in an occupation: projected employment growth, retirements
and occupational shifts. This would provide the context for an examination of supply
trends, as a prelude to examining supply gaps and priorities for migration.
2. Qualitative Research undertaken by DEEWR
Consideration needs also to given to skill shortage information from historical lists and
DEEWR employer surveys. DEEWR undertakes extensive contact with employers on an
ongoing basis to identify their experiences recruiting the skills they need. This work has
been undertaken consistently over the past three decades and provides a significant insight
into occupational labour markets. The information provides a basis for the more qualitative
understanding about skilled labour markets and employer needs including specialist skill
needs, the role of more generic skills and the nature and causes of skill shortages.
Occupations in which shortages have been persistent can present sound employment
outcomes for migrants at the same time as providing skills Australian employers experience
difficulty recruiting. An understanding of the reasons for these shortages and whether
migration of skilled workers in these occupations presents a viable solution could be
presented as part of the considerations for MODL.
In addition and as contextual information, key indicators could be developed as a way of
monitoring the demand for occupations. These could be modeled on the key indicators for
occupations on Job Outlook (www.joboutlook.gov.au), which are presented as both values
and deciles. Some of the variables that could be included are: employment size, recent job
growth, unemployment decile, vacancy rates, share of mature age workers and proportion
with qualifications.
3. Migration Program information
To ensure a Future Skills List takes account of other migration arrangements, labour
market data should be considered in the light of information about the skilled program,
including:
• take up rate of the temporary and permanent employer sponsored visas;
• the skills being imported through that channel;
• the size and skills/occupational mix of the independent GSM pipeline;
• annual program targets for skilled, family and humanitarian entrants.
The results of the Survey of Migrant Outcomes could also provide useful background on
labour market outcomes for skilled migrants.
4. Skills Australia
In line with the principle that a list should take into complement domestic skills supply
decisions on a list should take into account initiatives to address skills needs through
domestic education and training and Skills Australia’s national skills and workforce
development strategy
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
18
Implementation
Decisions about how and when to implement changes to the GSM process as a result of
this review need to take into account client service implications and how the changes
interact with other GSM initiatives.
All three options for integrating a new Future Skills List with the GSM assessment process
require complementary changes to the Points Test. A sensible transition period would need
to be established to ensure a smooth administrative implementation and to provide
potential applicants with adequate notice of changes to the eligibility requirements.
It would also be sensible to look to align any changes to MODL with DIAC’s plan to
transition from using ASCO to ANZSCO as a basis for the SOL in the first half of 2010.
Consideration must be given to the lead time required to undertake and compile the
research that would underpin the proposed methodology. Adequate allowance must also
be made for consideration of those findings in light of the broader principles set out in the
first Issues Paper, either by a new body/committee or by Ministers.
If a points value is to be attributed to an annually revised Future Skills List, another
pertinent question is how these revisions will affect GSM applicants. With a list focused on
future needs, is there room for changes to be introduced for new applications only? While
this provides certainty for applicants, it would disadvantage applicants who would
potentially benefit from a change to the Future Skills List. On the other hand, if the benefits
of the Future Skills List are preserved despite revisions, would the integrity of the skilled
program be undermined as there would be a group of applicants who are given visas on
the basis of skills that have been identified as no longer meeting the objectives of the
Future Skills List?
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
19
Conclusion
A skilled migration program that delivers results for both immigrants and the broader
Australian community is one which targets applicants who can lead a productive and
fulfilling life in Australia. In reviewing how the MODL contributes to this objective, this
paper builds on the principles proposed in the first Issues Paper and draws on the
responses provided by a broad range of stakeholders.
The value a skilled migrant brings can be assessed in two ways: by comparing the relative
characteristics of individuals in terms of their contribution to the Australian labour market; or
by comparing the relative merits of different occupations. In this context, the paper
explores options for integrating a Future Skills List into the GSM visa process which would
replace MODL. The list would focus on high value skills, and be developed on the basis of
evidence about future labour market needs considered in tandem with domestic education
and training initiatives.
The first option would be not to have an occupation list but to instead rely soley on the
GSM Points Test to assess the relative merits of applicants based on characteristics that
have been established to be indicators of good settlement and labour market prospects.
The second option would provide government with a tool to target the program, or part
thereof, through a list which would provide the basis for awarding points to applicants
whose skills meet Australia’s medium to long term needs. The points available for these
skills would provide a slight advantage to applicants in achieving the pass mark.
The third alternative would also use a Future Skills List as a tool but applicants who have
skills on the list would not gain an advantage under the Points Test, rather (if they meet the
pass mark) they would have their applications processed as a priority. This proposal would
operate in much in the same way as the current CSL.
The paper looks at how a robust evidence base would be established for a list and
proposes account be taken of domestic education and training as well as other migration
arrangements and outcomes. Consideration is also given to implementation issues for any
new list.
In an effort to promote discussion, the paper avoids offering preferred solutions or
suggested outcomes to the MODL Review. Feedback received will be critical in producing
the report to Government.
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
20
Attachment A What is the Migration Occupations in Demand List?
The MODL is primarily a targeting mechanism for the GSM program. It was introduced on
1 July 1999 to advantage visa applicants under the GSM program whose nominated
occupation was on the list. Its original intention was to improve the selection chances of
highly skilled visa applicants whose age and English language proficiency worked against
their relative chances of selection but whose occupation was in demand by Australian
employers.
To apply to migrate to Australia under the GSM program, each applicant must have their
skills assessed as suitable for an occupation nominated from the SOL. The SOL is a list of
skilled occupations that require a minimum qualification of a degree, diploma or trade
certificate.
In addition to meeting threshold requirements based on occupation, age, English language
ability and recent study or work experience, to be eligible to be granted a visa applicants
must pass the GSM Points Test. Applicants can be awarded points for a range of factors,
including where the occupation for which they have been assessed is on the MODL. This
means the MODL can benefit an applicant but is not critical to obtaining a visa outcome
where the applicant can obtain the necessary points under other factors in the Points Test.
The MODL is a subset of the SOL. The occupations on the MODL are identified as being in
shortage in Australia, on the basis of research undertaken by DEEWR.
MODL does not currently have any role in determining the priority in which a GSM
application will be processed.
MODL does not have any role in the temporary skilled, 457 visa program.
Skilled Occupation List
Non-MODL
Non-MODL
MODL
Non-MODL
60 point
occupations
50 point
occupations
40 point
occupations
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
21
Attachment B Issues for consultation
Which of the three options for integrating a Future Skills List with the GSM
assessment process do you prefer:
Option A – No Future Skills List in the GSM process
Option B – Future Skills List as component in the Points Test
Option C – Future Skills List as a prioritisation mechanism
Do you favour any other model for a Future Skills List?
Are there any comments you would like to make on the proposed
methodology for the Future Skills List?
What are the implementation issues you think Government should consider?

......................The changes to the MODL will not affect the ability of Australian industry to meet its skill needs through the Employer Nomination Scheme (ENS) and Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS).
...........................

新FAQ：

http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/g ... modl-review/faq.htm

Frequently Asked Questions - Review of the Migration Occupations in Demand List (MODL)
Q1. What is happening to the Migration Occupations in Demand List (MODL)?
A review of the purpose of the MODL and its methodology has commenced and is expected to be completed in late 2009.

The review aims to make MODL a more strategic tool in identifying the medium to long-term skill needs that complement Australia’s skill supply through the domestic tertiary education sector.

Q2. Why is the MODL being reviewed?
The review of the MODL is aimed at developing a better link between skilled migrant employment outcomes, the national training agenda and the work of Skills Australia, to ensure that skilled migration is aimed at responding to future skill needs which cannot be addressed through domestic training and skills development.

Q3. When will the new MODL be implemented?
The arrangements for the transition to the new MODL will be determined once the outcomes of the review are finalised.

The Critical Skills List will remain in place while the review is in progress and then be phased out following the implementation of any recommendations flowing from the review.

Q4. What will happen to priority processing of CSL applications?
Occupations which are listed on the CSL receive priority processing, which assists the targeting of the migration program. These arrangements will continue until the review is finalised. Once the review is finalised, arrangements for phasing out the CSL will be announced.

[ 本帖最后由 ydbzw 于 4-9-2009 17:39 编辑 ]

作者: James1972 时间: 4-9-2009 19:03
太长了，水平有限。谁可以概括一下

作者: wsdy007 时间: 4-9-2009 20:32
非常谢谢

[ 本帖最后由 wsdy007 于 4-9-2009 20:03 编辑 ]

作者: 我的霍巴特 时间: 4-9-2009 20:50
A类阅读第二篇。。

作者: wsdy007 时间: 4-9-2009 22:36
The changes to the MODL will not affect the ability of Australian industry to meet its skill needs through the Employer Nomination Scheme (ENS) and Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS).

看这意思176州担保也受影响啊？

作者: sevendragon 时间: 4-9-2009 23:49

原帖由 wsdy007 于 4-9-2009 21:36 发表

 登录/注册后可看大图

The changes to the MODL will not affect the ability of Australian industry to meet its skill needs through the Employer Nomination Scheme (ENS) and Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS).

看 ...

will
not

作者: 超级小懒 时间: 5-9-2009 00:21
In a General Skilled Migration program focused on selecting applicants with high value
skills, a Future Skills List could assist in targeting applicants best equipped to help address the medium to long term challenges facing Australia in the labour market and
demographically.
This section of the paper examines three ways to achieve this end,
Option A – No Future Skills List in the GSM process
The first option is not to have an occupational targeting mechanism. This would deliver a
spread of occupations via the GSM process. It recognises the mobility of the modern
workforce and the value of flexible, generic skills, a theme raised by many of the
stakeholders in their response to the first Issues Paper. Specialised skills can continue to
be sourced through the sponsored visa pathways.
Under this option the program would strive to meet future skills needs by facilitating the
entry of those migrants well equipped to adjust to fill emerging jobs, rather than trying to
pinpoint the exact skills employers will require in the future. A recent joint paper by Skills
Australia and the Academy of the Social Sciences, The Labour Market, Skills Demand and
Skills Formation observed:
Changes in industry composition have combined with technological change to
systematically alter the demand for skills. Technological change has been the
dominant influence, allowing for, or even driving, a restructuring of occupations within
industries…More generic and general skills, rather than firm-specific skills, are
required…The overall outcome is a more highly skilled workforce and a more efficient
economy.
By removing additional points for an occupation considered to be in current or future
demand, this option avoids the unintended consequence MODL points have had under the
existing points regime, with the program being filled by applicants with a narrow range of
occupations. It also removes any perverse incentives for international students to pursue
courses which appear to provide ‘easy’ avenues for those seeking permanent skilled
migration. Instead, this model encourages applicants to develop high level skills in the
Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program
11
areas that are established to be the prime indicators of success in the labour market –
English language, recognised skills, and sustained work experience.
A further advantage of having no list, is that the basis on which points are allocated or
priority accorded to GSM applicants would not be subject to revision. Prospective
applicants (and other stakeholders) would therefore have more certainty about their
capacity to meet the GSM requirements than under the current system where the
availability of MODL points changes regularly.
The main drawback of this option is that it removes any tools to ensure a positive migration
outcome for applicants who fall ‘just shy’ of the Points Test requirements, but otherwise
possess the skills and qualities that would allow them to make a positive contribution in
Australia. However, in reviewing the remaining Points Test factors and their values in order
to remove MODL points, there is an opportunity to address these settings and ensure they
adequately reflect the objectives of GSM. For example, it may be appropriate to ensure that
any points lost as an applicant ages, are able to be offset by the points gained for
substantial periods of skilled work experience – something that is highly valued by
employers and not readily available amongst younger migrants.

未来技能列表（Future Skills List）可以协助定位最有助于帮助解决澳大利亚劳动力市场和人口所面临的中长期挑战的申请者。
以下探讨了实现这一目标的三种方法：

第一种选择：GSM程序中无未来技能列表
第一种选择不是为了产生一种职业定位机制。它会通过GSM程序扩展职业。它承认现代劳动力的流动性以及适应性强的普通技能的价值，许多利益持有人在他们对第一份文件的反应中提出了这个主题。专业技能仍然可以通过担保签证的途径来获得。
　　根据这个选择，移民计划会通过促进以下移民入境的方式努力满足未来的技能需求，即能够很好地调整自己以从事新兴职业，而不是设法完全符合雇主将来需要的技能要求的移民。最近由澳大利亚技术（Skills Australia）、澳大利亚社会科学院（Academy of the Social Sciences）、劳动力市场（The Labour Market）、技能需求（Skills Demand）和技术构成（Skills Formation）共同发布的一篇文章提出：
行业构成中的变化与技术变化结合在一起，系统地改变了对技能的需求。技术变化在影响上具有支配地位，它使得，或甚至是推动了行业内的职业的重组。现在需要的是更多的普通和一般技能，而非各家公司特别需要的技能。其整体结果是更加高度技能化的劳动力和更加高效的经济。
通过不再给被视为有当前或未来需求的职业额外加分的方法，这种选择能够避免在现存的移民分数计算方法下MODL加分所带来的意外结果，即移民计划充满职业范围狭窄的申请者。它还取消了不正当的刺激措施，这些措施会鼓励国际学生选择看起来能够‘便于’永久技术移民的课程。相反，这种模式鼓励申请者去学习一些领域的高水平技能，这些领域被确定为在劳动力市场中成功的首要指标，它们是英语技能、公认技能和持久的工作经验。
　　没有未来技能列表的另外一个优势是，分数配给的依据或给予GSM申请者的优先权不会被修改。因此，与目前的移民体系下MODL分数的有效性定期变化相比，未来的申请者（和其它利益持有人）会更加确定他们满足GSM要求的能力。
　　这种方法的主要缺点在于，它撤消了用于确保未能满足分数测试要求的申请者能够获批签证的任何工具，然而这些申请者拥有能够让他们在澳大利亚做出积极贡献的技能和资格。但是，在为了取消MODL分数而审查剩余的分数测试因素及其价值时，我们能够有机会提出这些方面并确保它们充分反应GSM的目标。例如，确保因为申请者年龄失去的任何分数可以通过一段时间的技能性工作经验获得的分数来弥补，这样做是适当的，而这种经验是雇主高度重视并且无法从较年轻的申请者当中很容易地获得的。

我翻译了文中的一部分，有些地方我也不太清楚，根据我自己的理解来翻了。Option B & C还有其它部分还没翻，大家来一人认领一段吧，我知道FREEOZ都是高手，人多力量大

作者: premierx 时间: 5-9-2009 00:34
个人觉得很有可能最终还是引入Future Skills List，进而取代MODL，从而使一些职业得到priority，这是各国移民局要做的事情。对Options C进行一下概括吧：
第一段，引入Future Skills List,实行与CSL相同的作用。
第二段，引入有好有坏，There are inherent attractions to this option, but also a number of disadvantages，下面会详细解释。
第三段，移民局表示不会简单为了调整申请优先度而引入Future Skills List,，这样和不引入以前按modl或者csl没区别啦，移民局为的是满足国家长期发展需要，引入high economic value之类的职业。
第四段，参考NZ移民局的做法，在引入Future Skills List,的同时，表示在移民评分体系中得分高低也成为优先审核的参考因素，分数高的有可能处理的更快。

我只能说，如果把想法全部实施的话，移民局这次真是疯啦！！！大变天啊！！

作者: premierx 时间: 5-9-2009 00:42
接下来Would a Future Skills List be solely focused on occupation?：
作为评价方式，有
I,对每种职业做出最低的学历要求，比如说城市规划师需要有学士学位以上；这以前不是在实施吗？？？
II，为了要求 Future Skills List 的分数，对申请者作出各种规定而不是以前职业在上边就好，有可能对相关职业先要求英语及工作经验才成。甚至说
Including that occupation on a FutureSkills List, with an additional requirement of at least three years work experience would better ensure the labour market has access to a mixture a new graduates and
experienced practitioners.
这也太狠了吧？？？？？这对我们recent graduate也太不公平啦！！！！

作者: wsdy007 时间: 5-9-2009 00:45
州担保也影响吧，The changes to the MODL will not affect the ability of Australian industry to meet its skill needs through the Employer Nomination Scheme (ENS) and Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (RSMS).
这里的Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme ，我查了一下http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/general-skilled-migration/857.htm，里面没有176，那按照移民局的意思176也受这个modl调整影响了

，请高人分析

[ 本帖最后由 wsdy007 于 4-9-2009 23:47 编辑 ]

作者: ydbzw 时间: 5-9-2009 13:12
好象大家对这个ISSUE2关注的不多嘛，不知道各位是怎么想的，大家都来读一读谈一谈啊。特别是还没有递交申请和已经递交申请但没有准签的人，这个人数应该很多吧。写一些摘要，是我看了后的摘要，感觉前面废话较多，后面有些看点，如有个别遗漏和不确，请原谅！后面1/3没有读完，请高人继续研读和讲解。

移民局正在和教育部，就业和劳动关系部门和移民及公民部门共同审核MODL清单，下面的一句还是老套话，要确保澳大利亚的中期到长期的技术需求，并补充国内的技能供给。

上回的ISSUE1是预测性质的，目标是高经济价值和补充国内的技能供给。这第二个ISSUE是提出方案。其核心是为了制定一个今后独立技术移民的清单，以适应澳洲未来高经济价值需求和GSM移民的优先处理。这个文件也讨论了未来的这个清单将如何建立和审核：需求和供给要相一致，性质调查，移民步骤信息，工作技能及其他，考虑更广泛的问题例如：澳洲经济的未来需求，当地劳动市场。。。。等等等等，都是些废话。

下面还是废话：新MODL的审核和报告基于：新MODL是GSM移民的目标，并补充高价值的澳洲人tertiary-qualified Australians----这个词值得玩味。。。它应考虑到澳大利亚中长期的劳工市场并补充国内的高等教育。。 ANZSCO， ABS ，DEEWR，不知道是什么东西，废话一堆。关键日期和时间的改变来源于这个审核。审核由DEEWR和移民局共同进行，两个官方的部门进行协助，一个是财政部另一个什么叫做GB的教授。。。

第一个ISSUE包含以下观点：。。。-------（这个就不说了，大家前面都看过ISSUE1了）。DEEWR和移民部很高兴地收到来自于包括教育机构，评估机构，行业组织，工会和潜在的签证申请人的反馈，大多数受访者表示欢迎对MODL审核并且认为有必要重新考虑MODL和实现这些目标的最好方法。。。继续废话，这些表明他们强力支持新MODL等等等。。。下面还是喋喋不休地介绍高等价值目标指的是从GSM移民中得到拥有毕业后更高教育和技能的人。特别是行业本身，也欢迎那种具有短期的雇佣周期的清单，用合同程序来回应目前经济的不景气。。。

大多数受访者原则上同意清单应以高技能价值为目标，大多数讨论是关于如何定义这个high value，一个共识是这个清单应该反映经济与社会技能的价值。。。还是废话。反馈中还提出了多样化文件关于当前MODL和将来GSM程序的意见书，。。。实在看不下去了，都是他娘的废话。包括怎样建立一个预期的清单，本国的教育和培训将怎样被考虑进去，行业需求也要进一步考虑。。。下面不说了，废话一堆。

评论还收到了一个这个审核范围以外的主题，例如建议改变GSM程序的结构，要求拥有提名工作的临时签证申请人工作一段时间后才能具有永久居留资格----更是废话，一直不就是这样嘛。

第二个ISSUE文件：这个文件基于第一个ISSUE并且提出了如下观点：MODL在GSM评估中的角色和新的MODL方法。对于ISSUE过渡安排的讨论可以找这个移民及公民部的。。。女士，以下地址email电话（略），截止日期是2009年09年9月18日，政府将在10月考虑审核的结果。

来自于GSM程序的高价值技术移民的介绍，澳大利亚需要移民。没有他们，我们的劳动人口将开始缩小，下半年，今后十年，由于婴儿潮一代退休了，一些新进入者
劳动力市场。如果需要移民来补充我们的劳动力，最好是他们中的大多数具有技能。技术移民提供了三个明显的经济效益：它增加了具备工作年龄的人员数量（人口），增加了工作的人口（参与），提高GDP人均国内生产总值（生产率）。。。还是废话，。。。下面是阐述历史，2008-09年，澳洲准签了66900个海外技术移民，这个纯粹的方式表明澳洲在进口技能，这些准签者里10人当中有7人是被雇主或者州/领地担保，不是永居签证就是临居签证。。。。下面阐述了担保类移民的重要性，在这种情况下是雇主而不是政府选择了技术移民，他们能够通过全球劳力市场来填补当地的工作需求。。。等等等等。。。。总之，担保类移民对于技术需求和周期限制是个可选择的方法。

而2008-09年里那10人当中剩下的3人，是没有被担保的技术移民，在国际上，澳大利亚是比较罕见的，拥有永久居住签证的技术移民却没有一个工作offer。现在最重要的斟酌是选择澳洲国内技能短缺的职业提名----在需要120分通过的当中，直到80 points----80分？（在MODL职业里，对60分的职业和对于20分的职业）。这个政策的设立是为了分化来自于担保类的不足，如果雇主报告表明移民的技能是他们急需的，这将可以满足他们的敏感需求。

当没有一个工作的非担保类的移民到达澳洲时，我们需要对他们的前途保持信心，那就意味着，平均而言，他们需要拥有比担保类移民更高的价值技能。------这句话暗藏刀锋！他们要在澳大利亚的劳力市场中竞争，而目前，许多没有强大的英语语言技能的非担保类移民，在澳洲从事技术工作有困难。这个结果既不是移民们也不是澳洲劳力市场所满意的。当前的打分测试框架和同MODL的相互影响，给申请永久居住移民创建了一个低的障碍，这种扭曲的签证申请和准签方式被国际学生所选择。

当前的MODL于1999年实施，是为了挽救在澳洲劳力市场中那些技能被需求而打分不足的永久居民，例如一个在年龄计算上不被纳入的高级技工---whose age counted
against them.随着时间的推移，MODL已经成为一个解决技术移民短缺的普通手段，这个MODL在处理技能短缺上比担保类技术移民更缺乏有效性，并且导致了移民程序的扭曲。

第一个ISSUE文件建议MODL是被期待的，目标是高经济价值和补充目前到将来的国内技术需求。第二个ISSUE文件提出了它们的原则。中心部分是制定一个清单，将具有优势的申请人作为澳大利亚未来经济需要的高价值技术移民。。。。以下内容略省。。。清单将定期修订，如果没有清单弊大于利等等。。。。。。

出于平衡，对于未来技术清单将如何实施，有两个选择被提出------That being the case, two options are put forward as to how a Future Skills List would work, one to give additional points to someone nominating an occupation on the list (as MODL presently works), the other as a means of prioritising applications (as the CSL presently works). 一个是对于某些人提名在当前MODL上的职业给予额外的points，另一个是当前CSL职业的优先。文件
探讨了正反这两个方案的利弊，首先，该文件概述了将来技能清单的概念。对于高经济价值，有两个方式接近这个价值的问题，一个是澳洲劳力市场上个别职业特性的贡献，另一个是不同职业的优势比较。评估个人潜在贡献的角色是打分测试的执行，基于如教育，经验，年龄和英文的熟练，对于提名相同职业的两个申请人，谁有更好的成绩那么他应该优先于另一个。对于两个有相同的分数points，而提名不同职业的申请人，政府可能选择一个职业更好（favour one ）的申请人。MODL要被设计为在国家技能短缺中有良好前景的更好的职业清单，可选择的理由是某些更好的职业符合澳洲将来的技能需求。

第一个ISSUE文件阐述了未来几年澳洲面临的挑战。。。。增长下降，人口老龄化。。。（以下省略）。。。一个未来的技能清单能更好地使澳大利亚应付这些挑战等等等等。。。。。。。。。

未来的技能清单要符合政府的战略重点，
一个高度需求的技术职业会被优先，
超过未来3-5年不太可能完全满足现有的供应机制的强力需求的职业会被评估。
那些有劳力发展策略，但是需要用一个中期（3-5年）来补充的职业。

举例来说，政府希望增加在数学和科学方面的中学教师，以鼓励向知识型基础经济转变。在未来数年，教师预计供应短缺，政府鼓励更多年轻的澳洲人追求这个职业。未来的技能清单将是针对职业的特殊技能，而不是通用的技能。未来的技能清单使得具有较高价值的申请人，能帮助澳洲应对在劳力市场和人口上中长期面临的挑战。

对于目前MODL的冲击包括，
在GSM个案上对于某个MODL职业的提名。
在名单里具有高价值的50分职业。
斟酌MODL里那些对于申请人创建的低门槛。

。。。。以下三段内容略。。。阐述工业结构的改变，加上技术的改变，系统地改变了对技能的需求，所以要创建一个更高素质的劳动力市场和更有效率的经济。。。。。

移除一些职业的额外加分，是为了避免当前MODL导致的意外结果，这些被申请人充斥的职业具有狭窄的范围，它也可以移除一些为国际学生提供“容易”途径以获得永居签证的课程所导致的不正当奖励。取而代之的是，新MODL将鼓励申请人选择发展高技能的职业。这个选择的主要缺点是对于那些“略低于计分制的要求”的申请人移除了任何工具，以保证积极的移民程序，但是技能的处理方式将允许他们在澳洲创建一个积极的贡献。考虑到剩余的分数和他们被从MODL移除的分数价值，有一个机会可以充分反映GSM的目的，例如，作为一个申请人的年龄分数可以弥补技能工作经验，这些工作经验被雇主认为是高价值但是在年轻的移民当中是缺乏的。

新机制将借鉴原来的MODL和打分测试的相互影响，在MODL职业里有一个job offer的申请人被奖励5分或者10分，这意味着打分测试要扮演一个重要角色，以确保有高价值特征但是缺少通过分数的申请人能够用他们特殊的有需求的技能获得GSM签证。然而，对于那些把MODL看成是获得GSM签证的最佳方式的潜在申请人，这个分数不是非常有价值。最重要的是减少了重新校对打分测试，更加强调了强大的英语语言技能和工作经验的重要性，持续的国际调查表明它们是成功的劳动力市场一体化的关键因素。。。。。以下内容略。。。。。。

。。。下面的内容同ISSUE1有些重复。。。新MODL将给政府提供一个工具，以定位那些高价值技术的申请人，而这些申请人的技能在澳洲国内培训或教育系统里是不能提供的。未来的清单要取代作为优先次序机制的CSL名单。在这个清单下，提名一个职业的申请人要得到比其他独立的或家属担保申请更加领先的处理。

))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))Future Skills: Targeting high value skills through the General Skilled Migration program 12此段以下暂时没读了，等其他TX研读和讲解。

作者: ydbzw 时间: 5-9-2009 13:22
标题: 回复 #11 wsdy007 的帖子
怎么会有这个感觉呢？原文说的很清楚了，ENS和RSMS担保类别不会受到新MODL的影响。如果雇主和边远地区需求的担保职业却被DIAC拦腰截住，那成了什么原则？

作者: pusu1980 时间: 5-9-2009 19:22
LZ,我们焊工的还会在新的MODL上吗？谢谢！

作者: ydbzw 时间: 5-9-2009 22:59
标题: 回复 #13 pusu1980 的帖子
焊工? 我不知道啊。文章里说新MODL是要补充tertiary-qualified Australians高价值技术的申请人，而这些申请人的技能在澳洲国内培训或教育系统里是不能提供的。我关心的是ACS如何变动。

作者: ydbzw 时间: 6-9-2009 00:30
大家对移民局未来的新清单有什么想法，对过去政策有什么想法，赶快联系文章中给出的下面的Ms Miranda Lauman啊，此人的头衔是Director, MODL Review，现在他们正在征集各方面的Comments和看法啊。截至日期还有一个多星期。这个时候不表达想法，以后等新职业清单出来了，就那么回事了。

Comments on this Issues Paper are invited using the questions posed at Attachment A.
Responses, and any queries, should be directed to:
Ms Miranda Lauman
Director, MODL Review
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
Email: miranda.lauman@immi.gov.au
Phone: 02 6264 2525
and received no later than Friday, 18 September 2009.

[ 本帖最后由 ydbzw 于 5-9-2009 23:39 编辑 ]

作者: mgdhy 时间: 6-9-2009 14:24
想问一问将来的新职业名单对以前的申请人怎么处理？

作者: cofeedog 时间: 6-9-2009 16:09
标题: 回复 #15 ydbzw 的帖子
请问ydbzw，移民局对于新的MODL什么时候发布，什么时候实施有什么说法么？
thanks

作者: ydbzw 时间: 6-9-2009 19:32

原帖由 cofeedog 于 6-9-2009 15:09 发表

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请问ydbzw，移民局对于新的MODL什么时候发布，什么时候实施有什么说法么？
thanks

不用谢。

1楼的FAQ，那里面的第3个提问和答案已经很明确地回复了你的提问
--------Q3. When will the new MODL be implemented?
The arrangements for the transition to the new MODL will be determined once the outcomes of the review are finalised.

The Critical Skills List will remain in place while the review is in progress and then be phased out following the implementation of any recommendations flowing from the review.

也就是说，一旦移民局审核完对于各类职业的review，新的MODL将立即实施。

具体时间就是在10月份（见文章里的此段：.......The government will consider the outcomes of the review in October, with an announcement to follow shortly thereafter.......)。

作者: ydbzw 时间: 6-9-2009 19:39
标题: 回复 #16 mgdhy 的帖子
这个到目前为止，文件里没有提及。文件和FAQ里面只是说，在当前review的审核期间，CSL会继续有效，然后随着review的执行，它将被phase out ---------逐步淘汰。

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